October 18, 2004

US Beef Imports Soar In August

US beef imports in August were up a significant 57.6% from a year earlier. For the first eight months of 2004, beef imports were up 26%. Most of this increase came from Canada and Argentina.

Beef exports continue to be very low because of the discovery of a mad cow case last December. Beef exports for January - August plunged 85% from the same months of 2003.

Feeder cattle imports from Mexico for the 1st eight months were up over 30%. However, total live cattle imports for the same period fell over 28% because of the ban on live cattle imports from Canada due to mad cow disease.

USDA estimate of the 2004 corn crop is 11.6 billion bushel. The soybean estimate for October 1 is 3.1 billion bushel. Both the corn and bean crops would be a record high if they materialised. The previous record high crop for corn was at 10.1 billion bushels in 2003.

USDA projected price per bushel for corn for the 2004-05 marketing year is $1.95 for their mid point. This compares with $2.42 per bushel for the 2003-04 marketing year.

The estimated price per ton for soybean meal for 2004-05 marketing year is $165 per ton, down sharply from the $256 per ton average for the 2003-04 marketing year.

These potentially much lower feed prices for the next year will certainly help to hold strong feeder cattle prices.