October 17, 2007

Lower forecasts for global 2007/08 soy crop

Global 2007/08 soy crop is seen to drop by 223.83 million tonnes from 237.89 million tonnes 2006/07, according Hamburg-based oilseeds Oil World on Tuesday (October 16).

Production will be sharply below forecast 2007/08 consumption of 239.40 million tonnes, up from 226.11 million tonnes in 2006/07, Oil World said.

This is Oil World's new crop forecast in million tonnes:

Lower crop and higher consumption means the forecasts 2007/08 global season ending soy stocks will fall sharply to 56.46 million tonnes from 72.03 million tonnes at the end of 2006/07, said Oil World.

Oil World noted world stocks of soy are "likely to decline by an unprecedented quantity of 15.6 million tonnes in the course of the 2007/08 season as stocks in the US will be unusually low."

It estimates soy stocks in US by end-August 2008 will fall to 5.71 million tonnes from 15.59 million tonnes at end August 2007.

The world market's dependence on South American soy will increase in 2007/08, Oil World points out due to lower US and Canadian production and export supplies. Major South American exporting countries will achieve a record 61 percent of global soy trade in 2007/08.

Oil World also stressed that a steep increase in Chinese soy imports by 4.2 million tonnes to almost 33 million tonnes in will take place in Aug/July 2007/08.