October 17, 2007

World corn exports may hit record of 92.4 million tonnes

Projections for the 2007/08 world corn trade have increased by 2 million tonnes this month to hit a record of 92.4 million tonnes, reports the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

USDA says expected imports by the EU-27 are raised from 1.5 million tonnes to 9.5 million based on the strong pace of purchases, with large import licenses confirming the trade. Brazil, with record corn exports (mostly to the EU-27), is also increasing its imports from neighbouring Paraguay, with projected imports up 0.45 million tonnes to 0.75 million.

Canada is expected to feed less wheat and barley and export more corn as the grain's price becomes more attractive for feed makers. Canada's corn imports are projected up 0.3 million tonnes this month to 2.0 million, according to the USDA.

China's corn exports projected for 2007/08 were reduced by half this month to 1.5 million tonnes over tight local supplies caused by shrinking production prospects and continued growth in meat production. The Government of China has restricted the growth in industrial use of corn for the production of ethanol and is unlikely to subsidize large exports, says the USDA.

Brazil's corn exports in 2007/08 (October-September) are projected to reach a record 8.5 million tonnes, up 0.5 million this month because of strong purchases of Brazilian corn by the EU-27, which prefers corn from Brazil because of restrictions on GMO imports.

Corn exports by US for 2007/08 (October-September) are projected up 3.0 million tonnes in October to 60.0 million tonnes, the highest in 18 years and the third highest on record. US local marketing year (September-August) exports increased 100 million bushels to 2.35 billion bushels. Reduced competition from China and increased world trade are enhancing US export prospects.

Corn sales have also been robust in its early season pace, according to the USDA. The US Export Sales reports that as of October 4, 2007, outstanding sales of corn reached 18.5 million tonnes, up from 10.9 million a year earlier.

The US sorghum export projection for 2007/08 increased 1.0 million tonnes to 6.6 million, the highest in 15 years due to strong purchases by the EU-27, which seeks non-GMO grain imports. EU-27 sorghum imports projected for 2007/08 increased 1.5 million tonnes this month to a record 3.0 million. However, the strong buying by the EU-27 is expected to increase US sorghum export prices enough to limit sales to Mexico, which were trimmed 0.5 million tonnes this month to 2.5 million. Significant adjustments to projected 2007/08 world barley trade were caused by reduced exports prospects for drought-stricken Australia. Exports for Australia are down 2.2 million tonnes this month to 2.3 million. Increased exports for the EU-27, Canada, and Kazakhstan are partly offsetting, but global barley imports were also reduced.