October 17, 2007

 

US Crop Progress Wrap: Corn, soy harvests roll on

 

 

The harvesting of the US corn and soy crops are at or above the level set in 2006, while the planting pace of the US winter wheat crop lags the progress set last year, the US Department of Agriculture reported Monday (October 15).

 

The USDA reported that 53 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of Sunday, October 14, above the 39 percent cut last year and the five-year average of 41 percent.

 

Analysts had expected the harvest at 50 to 55 percent complete.

 

"The corn harvest is moving forward but looking ahead it does look like it will be an off-and-on harvest pace for the next seven to 10 days due to the weather," said Don Roose, president of US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Wet or very wet weather is forecast for the western US Midwest this week, DTN Meteorlogix Weather said Monday.

 

In Illinois, 81 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 60 percent last year and the five-year average of 61 percent. 

 

In Iowa, 37 percent of the harvest was complete, up from the 29 percent reported last year and the five-year average of 29 percent. Indiana's crop was 58 percent harvested, up from the 27 percent combined last year.

 

Nebraska, the third-largest US corn producing state, reported 37 percent of the crop was harvested as of Sunday, above the 31 percent average, while No. 4 producer Minnesota's corn harvest is 47 percent finished, well above the 25 percent cut in 2006.

 

The USDA rated 65 percent of the corn crop in good-to-excellent condition, up two percentage points from last week.

 

The government crop conditions ratings indicate that yields should to be going up but that was not the case in Friday's production report, said Roose.

 

The USDA reported that 66 percent of the US soy crop was harvested as of Sunday, within the 65 to 70 percent expected by analysts and equal to the 66 percent harvested in 2006 and just above the five-year average of 65 percent.

 

In Iowa, 71 percent of the crop has been harvested, compared to 84 percent last year and the 82 percent average. In Illinois, 86 percent of the crop has been combined, above the 72 percent five-year average.

 

In Minnesota, 84 percent of the crop was reported harvested, compared to the 90 percent last year and the average of 73 percent. In Indiana, the harvest was 69 percent complete, compared to 45 percent in 2006 and the average of 60 percent.

 

The harvest is in line with expectations but as with corn the trade will be looking at the weather forecast to see if any problems develop in getting the remainder of the crop harvested, but "it's not a concern at this point," Roose said.

 

However, with the projected tight supply situation soy can't afford harvest losses of any magnitude and the market will keep some risk premium in the market until the harvest is complete, he said.

 

The USDA reported that 97 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, unchanged from the level in 2006 and slightly ahead of the five-year average of 96 percent.

 

The USDA reported that 73 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, below the 77 percent seeded in 2006 as well as the five-year average of 76 percent.

 

In Kansas, the largest US wheat producing state, 71 percent of the wheat has been planted as of Sunday, compared to the average of 80 percent. In Oklahoma, 68 percent of the crop has been seeded, compared to 74 percent last year and the five-year average of 78 percent.

 

In the hard red winter wheat states several are behind in their planting pace, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grain analyst at Prudential Financial in Chicago. Kansas is down 11 points from the average and Oklahoma is 10 points behind, but the gap between the current planting pace and the average has closed considerably in recent weeks and shows that farmers are getting a lot of planting work done.

 

The delays in the hard red winter wheat belt are due to wet weather, which is not a problem, he said.

 

In soft red winter wheat producing states, Illinois was 70 percent planted, compared to 67 percent in 2006 and the average of 56 percent. In Ohio, 78 percent of the crop has been seeded, well above the 38 percent planted last year and the five year average of 59 percent.

 

The soft red winter wheat states have made very good progress, reflecting the dry weather in the US Midwest, and soft wheat farmers have been able to get the crop planted, McCambridge said. Showers are expected over the next several days and are just what the crop needs to support early germination and crop development, he said.

 

The USDA reported that 43 percent of the winter wheat crop has emerged, below the 48 percent in 2006 and the average of 51 percent.

 

In Kansas, 38 percent of the crop has emerged compared to the average of 53 percent. In Oklahoma, 37 percent of the crop has emerged versus 45 percent last year.