October 17, 2006

FAO revises coarse grain trade marginally downwards 

FAO revised global trade in coarse grains for 2006-07 (July-June) downwards by 600,000 tonnes to 105 million tonnes for the previous season.

Slight reductions in barley and sorghum made for most of the anticipated decline. However, in spite of its high prices and a possible slowdown in total feed usage, maize might enjoy another strong year, approaching 80 million tonnes; or slightly above the previous season's record.

Canada, Egypt and Kenya could import more maize this season due to reduced domestic production. In contrast, good crops in most countries in Asia and southern Africa might limit imports there and could lead to higher export availability

In China, in spite of strong domestic demand, exports could be high, given the prospect for a record maize crop. Major exporters such as the US and EU are expected to increase shipments, largely offsetting declines from Canada and Argentina.

However, higher exports from the US would bring down its ending stocks at a time when the country's domestic production is declining and domestic demand for industrial use continues to grow.

FAO's forecast for global coarse grains production has been increased slightly since the last report to 992.3 million tonne, which would bring output almost to the level now estimated for last year.

There has also been an improvement since July in the outlook for the harvests in many northern hemisphere countries. These developments may more than offset a reduced outcome in Europe and deteriorating prospects in Australia and South America, FAO said.