China's soy imports to further rise

The surge in China's soy imports is predicted to go on, but will only have a limited impact on domestic producers in the short term, agricultural analysts said Wednesday (Oct 13).

 

Imports reached a new high of 40.16 million tonnes in the first nine months of this year, almost equivalent to the total figure of 42.55 million tonnes in 2009, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

 

Imports of soy for the fourth quarter are now estimated at 13.8 million tonnes, 3.6 million more than the same period last year, according to a report released by the China National Grain and Oils Information Center.

The Ministry of Commerce has also raised its forecast for October imports from 3.32 million tonnes to 4.15 million, an increase of 0.83 million tonnes.

 

This is the third consecutive year that soy imports have increased, from 37.44 million tonnes in 2008, to an estimated 53.96 million this year.

 

"The surge in imports reflects the big supply shortage in China's food market," said Hu Bingchuan, an assistant researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

 

China produces about 15 million tonnes of soy every year, equivalent to about one third of the annual import figure, and not enough to meet domestic demand.

 

At the meantime, ongoing urbanisation has triggered an increase in consumption of soyoil and meat.

 

Demand for vegetable oil is increasing by around 6% per annum, according to the latest industry data, with most of the imported beans used in the manufacture of soyoil and animal feed.

 

"At current production levels, imports of soy are very likely to continue to increase," said Hu.

 

Compared with indigenous soy, the imported variety costs 15% less, making them more attractive to the soyoil industry.

 

The continued importation of the beans has provoked concern about the future for domestic producers, but analysts see no immediate danger.

 

"Imported soybeans have only a limited impact on the domestic industry due to their different uses. Imported beans are mostly used to make soyoil, while the indigenous kind are used in food production," said Zhang Xiaoping, who is based in China as acting director of American Soybean Association-International Marketing.

 

"Of 15 million tonnes of soybeans produced every year in China, 10 million were made into food. However as demand continues to grow, the day when all 15 million are used for food may not so far away," Hu said.