October 15, 2007

US to harvest record corn crop at 13.318 billion bushels

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported on Friday (October 12) that US corn production this year is seen at a record 13.318 billion bushels while soy at 2.598 billion bushels.

The corn output estimate of 13.318 billion bushels is up slightly from the September number of 13.308 billion and sharply higher than the 2006 total of 10.535 billion. Before the report, expectations ranged from 13.232 billion to 13.6 billion bushels, with an average guess of 13.459 billion. The average yield came out at 154.7 bushels per acre, compared to 155.8 in the September report and 155.8 bushels per acre a year ago. Albeit the reduction, it will still be the second highest yield on record of 160.4 bushels per acre in 2004, says the USDA.

Analysts were estimating yield at 157.7 bushels per acre, in a range of 154.9 to 159.25 as yields improved in the Great Plains, Delta and Central Cornbelt on better than a year ago growing weather, while declining in the Northeast, mid-Atlantic and Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys due to drier than normal conditions. The harvested area for 2007 is seen at 86.071 million acres, the highest since 1933, compared to the 70.648 million collected last year. 2007 planted area was pegged at 93.616 million acres, so the USDA is predicting a loss of around 7.545 million acres between planting and harvest.

For soy, production is set at 2.598 billion bushels as down 1 percent from September's 2.619 billion, well below last year's record of 3.188 billion. Analysts were expecting beans to be around 2.648 billion bushels, with a range of 2.583 billion to 2.722 billion. The average yield of 41.4 bushels per acre is unchanged from September and down from the year ago total of 42.7. Statewide, yields were lower in Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Wisconsin, along with the bulk of the Atlantic Coast, primarily due to hot, dry weather. Yields were up from September for Iowa, Ohio, New York, North and South Dakota, and most of the Gulf Coast, thanks to comparatively good growing weather. Pre-report estimates ranged from 41 to 43 bushels an acre, with an average of 41.9. The harvested area for soy is placed at 62.818 million acres, which is down quite a bit from the year ago figure of 74.602 million, following the reduction in planted area. The 2007 planted area for beans was 63.669 million acres, which works out to a loss of 851,000 acres from planting to harvest.