October 14, 2010

NOPA's September soy crush seen to fall to 116.5 million bushels

September soy crush rates in the National Oilseed Processors Association's (NOPA) monthly report is expected to drop to nearly 116.5 million bushels due to tight availability of supplies, according to analysts.

NOPA's report on the September soy crush is scheduled to be released Thursday (Oct 14) at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT). The daily soy crush rate slowed in September because tight soy supplies for crushing translated into a smaller on-month crush pace, analysts said. Supplies of soy from the last harvest dwindled because of strong demand.

The industry was in a transition phase, with crushers plagued by low old crop stocks until new crop supplies were available by the middle of September, said Dan Basse, president AgResource Company in Chicago.

Estimates for the report ranged from as low as 112 million bushels to as high as 122.6 million bushels. In the previous report, crush for the month of August was measured at 122.397 million bushels. Analysts said the crush would decrease by about 5.9 million bushels in the September report.

The NOPA report includes figures only from member processors.

Meanwhile, NOPA soyoil stocks in September are expected to decline to 2.723 billion pounds, down from 2.818 billion pounds in August. Estimates ranged from as low as 2.6 billion pounds to as high as 2.937 billion pounds.

A lower processing pace in September and good soyoil export demand led to a drawdown of soyoil supplies, said Basse.

However, soyoil stockpiles are hard to factor with uncertainty surrounding the biodiesel industry, as some marginal producers are still in operation despite the absence of the US$1 a gallon blender's tax credit, Basse added.