October 14, 2009

US corn and soy crops continue to lag behind schedule in harvest progress and maturity, according to the government's crop progress report Tuesday (October 13).

 

The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress report showed that both corn and soy are behind their normal pace, but fared better than expected following the first frost of the season last week.

 

Meanwhile, overall winter wheat plantings are off to a good start.

 

The USDA said that 89 percent of the soy crop was dropping leaves, up from 79 percent the previous week, but down from the average of 95 percent.

 

The percentage of the crop dropping leaves, says most of the crop is mature and far enough along that cold won't have a significant impact on yields any more, said Don Roose, president US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

 

Twenty-three percent of the crop was harvested, down from 49 percent at the same time last year and the five-year average of 57 percent.

 

"Harvest progress remains behind, but as we have seen in the past, an open week of harvesting can produce a significant jump in progress," Roose said. Farmers just need a little window of opportunity and soy harvest will quickly move forward, as farmers will cut beans at the expense of corn, as it can't withstand adverse conditions as well as corn can, Roose said. The crop continues to look good. The USDA said that 65 percent of the soy crop was in good to excellent condition, down 2 percentage points from last week.

 

The ratings declined as expected, showing that snow and freezing weather did cause some minor crop damage, Roose said.

 

The USDA said that 74 percent of the corn crop was mature, up from 57 percent the prior week, but still well below the five-year average of 92 percent.

 

The maturity of crop shows, that some fields were vulnerable to the first frost in northern areas, but not as bad as people had anticipated, said Shawn McCambridge, senior grains analyst with Prudential Bache in Chicago.

 

"We saw some quality losses, but it's not surprising, as the market had been trading that for the past week, McCambridge said.

 

Among the states lagging well behind is key corn producer Illinois, where only 56 percent of the crop was mature, down from 86 percent last year and the five-year average of 97 percent. Indiana, another key producer, was only 69 percent mature, compared with the five-year average of 92 percent, and Minnesota's crop was only 71 percent mature, compared with the 92 percent average.

 

As a result, harvest remains behind schedule, with only 13 percent of the crop harvested, compared with 10 percent last year and the five-year average of 35 percent.

 

The harvest in southern areas was washed out last week, bringing in similarities to last year where an extended harvest season occurred and a lot of wet corn was harvested, McCambridge said.

 

Looking ahead, based on the maturity the upcoming weekend frost will not cause significant damage, as most of the yield losses were absorbed from the previous week's freeze, he said.

 

The USDA said that 70 percent of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, unchanged from the prior week and compared to 62 percent for the same time last year.

 

The ratings are secondary to the market at this point, as the crop moves closer to maturity, said McCambridge. However, with the crop ending the year with such high ratings, it shows the production potential is there, he added.

 

Meanwhile, Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting president Mike Zuzolo said, "I don't know whether to laugh or cry after the freeze came through, and USDA is suggesting for corn that the Illinois crop improved 2 percent in very poor to poor, Iowa improved 1 percent in VP/P, and Minnesota didn't change in VP/P versus last week."

 

"I guess this time of year, even with maturity lagging 10 percent in Iowa and 30 percent in Illinois versus last year, the freeze doesn't have a bearing on crop conditions," Zuzolo added. 

 

The USDA said that 64 percent of the winter wheat crop had been planted as of Sunday, up from 53 percent last week and down slightly from the five-year average of 69 percent.

 

Overall winter wheat plantings are moving along nicely, with good emergence and good weather supporting germination, said McCambridge.

 

Thirty nine percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 42 percent the prior year and the five-year average of 40 percent.

 

"The hard red winter wheat and white winter crops are off to a good start, and maybe next week based on the amount planted, we may see our first crop ratings for the crop," McCambridge said.

 

The soft red winter wheat crop is behind where it should be due to wet conditions slowing plantings, McCambridge said. "This will raise some concerns if farmers will plant as much SRW wheat as expected and continue to draw attention moving forward," he added.