October 14, 2004
China's 2004/05 Corn Production Forecast Raised
China's 2004/05 corn production forecast was raised to 122.0 million tons this month. This is an increase of 2.0 million tons from last month and 6.2 million tons from last year.
Estimated area was revised upward this month to 23.7 million hectares based on information from the US Agricultural Counselor in Beijing and other sources. The forecast yield of 5.15 tons per hectare is the highest yield since 1998/99. Most of the major corn-growing regions of China enjoyed adequate rainfall and favorable temperatures this summer.
China's government has not released an official corn area estimate for 2004/05. According to a spring planting intentions survey by the Ministry of Agriculture, corn area was expected to drop 2.4 percent in 2004/05. But other sources now suggest that area may equal or be slightly higher than last year.
Earlier this year, the Chinese government announced several incentives to encourage more grain production in 2004/05, including tax cuts, direct payments to grain farmers, and subsidies for seeds and agricultural machinery. According to the US Agricultural Counselor, farmers responded favorably to these policies and planted more grain (including corn) this year.
Temperatures and soil moisture were generally favorable in the Northeast for corn planting and emergence, but hot and dry weather in June reportedly stressed corn in Inner Mongolia and western parts of Jilin and Heilongjiang. Widespread rainfall and seasonable temperatures in July and August alleviated the drought and created very good conditions for reproduction and filling.
On the North China Plain, planting conditions for both the spring and summer corn crops were good. Rainfall was near to above normal all summer, providing abundant moisture for crop development. Temperatures were generally mild and heat stress was minor. Conditions in southern China were mixed: flooding caused crop losses in Sichuan and Hubei, while drought and typhoons hurt some crops in the southeast.
