October 13, 2009

Rain, snow and cold in the corn and soy belt, a mixed outlook in Southern Plains wheat areas, untimely rain chances in the far West, favourable Brazil soil moisture, improving moisture chances for Argentina, variable conditions in China, a hotter and drier trend in India, scattered rain in Australia, and wet conditions in Europe and Ukraine are the main weather items for the commodity trade's attention Monday (October 12).

 

The DTN Ag Weather forecast calls for cold temperatures along with rain and snow in the central US corn and soy belt during the first half of the week. This follows heavy rain and snow at the end of last week, with the result being a very unfavourable scenario for crop maturing and harvest.

 

A season-ending hard freeze has occurred through most crop areas west of the Mississippi and some areas to the east during the weekend period. This means lows at or below 28F. Northern areas may have some benefit for harvest due to very cold temperatures in the last few days.

 

In the Delta, episodes of rain and cool weather will continue for the next three to four days. This further delays crop harvests and is unfavourable for mature crops.

 

Rain in Southern Plains wheat areas will mostly favour germination and early growth of wheat. Rain will delay planting progress in the south and east areas. Cold temperatures slow germination and emergence of recently planted wheat and may burn back some emerged wheat in the north.

 

The remnants of typhoon Melor continue to track towards the west coast of North America. This is expected to combine with the strong jet stream already in the area to cause the formation of a powerful storm.

 

High winds and heavy rains are likely for much of northern and parts of central California. At this time of year this is highly unfavourable as it delays and disrupts summer crop harvests and may damage unharvested crops.

 

Most of the southern belt of Brazil has surplus moisture due to well-above-normal late-winter and early-spring rains. The northern crop belt also has ample available soil moisture at this time, while some northern soy areas could use more rain.

 

In Argentina, rain and thunderstorms hit major corn, soy and wheat areas in southeast Cordoba, Santa Fe, central and east Buenos Aires. Rain helps improve the condition of wheat and builds moisture for early growth of corn and soy. Little rain has occurred through wheat areas of La Pampa and southwest Buenos Aires.

 

In northern China, cool to cold weather during the past week along with dry conditions will favour mature crops and aid in the harvest. Any immature crops could see some damage if readings fall below freezing (32F/0C) in any areas. Central China crop areas have had some rain during the weekend, favouring early-planting winter wheat but slowing fall field work.

 

Most of India has again turned hotter and drier since the middle of last week. This favours maturing and harvesting for the kharif crop but may reduce soil moisture for early rabi crops.

 

In Australia, a storm system continues to move towards the southeast coast of Australia early this week. The last time this happened the rain was mainly confined to the southeast, and areas where it did not rain had strong winds and dust storms in the much warmer air ahead of the system.

 

Heavy rains have developed through central and a little of eastern Europe and the west Ukraine during the weekend. The weather this week features a major storm for parts of east Europe and the west Ukraine and Belarus. This may change to a significant snow storm. Delays to summer crop harvests and winter crop planting appears very likely.