October 13, 2008

 

 

Argentina's 2007-08 wheat crop got little help from showers last week as the increased rainfall arrived too late to reverse drought damage in much of the crop, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said in its weekly crop report Friday (October 11).

 

"The rainfall did not have a significant impact in the central and northern areas of the country, where much of the crop had already seen yields defined, certainly with low potential," the Exchange said.

 

Final production is expected to be down 28 percent from the 16 million tonnes grown last season, three percentage points lower than the Exchange's forecast last week.

 

Dry weather prevented planting in many cases and the 4.48 million hectares sown is 18.5 percent less than last season and the smallest area in 34 years. In addition, 3 percent to 4 percent of the crop was lost and yields are expected to be down 12-13 percent, according to the Exchange.

 

Farmers rushed ahead with corn planting this week in anticipation of showers over the weekend.

 

To date, farmers have planted 29.8 percent of the 2.7 million hectares seen going to corn, down 3.4 percentage points from this time last year. The progress over the past week reached 18.8 percentage points.

 

Despite the prospect of improved moisture levels, falling corn prices and high costs to grow the grain will likely lead to a decrease in planting and a reduction in the forecast area, the Exchange said.

 

The Exchange again trimmed its forecast for 2008-09 sunflower seed planting, lowering it to 2.43 million hectares from 2.5 million forecast last week and 2.54 million the week before.

 

Drought prevented planting in many northern areas and falling sunseed oil prices have spurred a shift away from the crop. Area is seen down 10 percent on the year, according to the Exchange.

 

In addition, further reductions in the forecast may be coming if farmers continue to move away from the oilseed, the Exchange said.

 

To date, farmers have planted 12.4 percent of the crop, 5.4 percentage points behind the pace at this time last year, according to the Exchange.

 

Argentina hasn't started 2008-09 soy planting, but the area going to the seeds is expected to rise sharply this season as the beans take up the slack from decreased wheat, corn and sunseed area.