October 13, 2004

USDA Lowers Forecast For 2004-05 US Wheat Ending Stocks

The US Department of Agriculture on Tuesday lowered its forecast for 2004-05 wheat ending stocks by 9 million bushels due to expectations of stronger feed and residual use as well as exports.
 
The USDA, in its monthly supply and demand report, raised its production forecast by 41 million bushels to 2.164 billion bushels, but said that is "more than offset by 25-million-bushel increases in both exports and in feed and residual use."
 
Analysts had generally expected a boost in USDA's production forecast to increase ending stocks.
 
The new USDA prediction for 2004-05 ending stocks is 569 million bushels, down from 578 million in the department's September forecast. According to a Dow Jones survey, the average analyst's estimate was 588 million.
 
Despite the USDA lowering its carryout prediction, it is still above the 2003-04 total of 547 million bushels.
 
The USDA raised its predictions for US and world wheat production.
 
"Global wheat production is raised 5.2 million tons and now stands at a record 616 million tons, 64 million tons more than last year and the largest year-to-year increase in over 45 years," the USDA said in the supply and demand report.
 
Despite increased wheat production throughout the world, the USDA's forecast for US exports is raised this month to 975 million bushels, up from 950 million a month ago.