October 12, 2009

The USDA's forecast for 2009-10 Australia wheat production is 23.5 million tonnes, up 0.5 million or 2 percent from last month, and up 2.0 million or 9 percent from last year, the US Department of Agriculture said in its monthly crop circular report.

The current crop outlook, if realized, will be the largest crop in four years. Area is forecast at 13.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and the same as last year.

In Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia, the key features shaping the wheat crop outlook are the current crop conditions and a likely favourable finish to the season. Overall, crop areas in these states experienced good weather throughout the season. Crop development in Victoria, South Australia, and Western Australia ranges from grain-filling to maturity; so in some areas within these states, weather conditions remain important in determining the final crop outcome.

In contrast, Queensland and southern New South Wales had below average winter rainfall and warmer than normal conditions during August and September. As a result, yield expectations in these regions are projected close to or slightly below the long-term average. However, yield gains in the rest of the country's wheat belt will likely offset the poor outcome in Queensland and southern New South Wales. Most crops in Queensland and New South Wales have already reached maturity and harvesting has commenced in some areas.