October 12, 2009

 

Argentine wheat conditions are good across much of the farm belt after recent rainfall, but continue to suffer from dryness and pest attacks in the south of Buenos Aires province, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report Friday (October 9).

 

The crop has also suffered varying degrees of frost damage in parts of Cordoba and Entre Rios province, it said.

 

The Secretariat hasn't forecast output, but the Rosario Grain Exchange says that 2009-10 wheat production is likely to total about 7.4 million tonnes. That's down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-2009, and down sharply from the average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.

 

With domestic demand pegged at 6.5 million tonnes by the government, just 900,000 tonnes of wheat are likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop. The US Department of Agriculture is expecting Argentina to export 1.5 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour from the 2009-10 crop.

 

Corn planting is advancing but crop development is lagging due to cold weather recently, the Secretariat said.

 

As of Wednesday, 14.5 percent of the forecast 1,875,000 hectares have been seeded with corn, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts total corn planting of 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes.

 

The government has pegged domestic consumption of corn from the 2009-10 crop at 8 million tonnes, leaving an equal amount available for export, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts 7 million tonnes of exports from the 2009-10 corn crop.

 

Conditions for sunflower-seed planting are good in the central parts of the country, but recent showers were too little too late for many of the crops in the northern provinces, where early sunseeds are usually planted.

 

In Chaco province, planting has ended because of the poor conditions, with farmers only planting 45 percent of the intended area and much of the crop in bad shape, the Secretariat said.

 

The Buenos Aires exchange forecasts nationwide planted area of 2,050,000 hectares, down 4.4 percent on the year.

 

As of Wednesday, 9.3 percent of the forecast sunseed area had been planted, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.

 

The Rosario Grain exchange forecasts sunseed production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about 3 million tonnes last season when yields suffered because of drought.

 

Argentina is expected to plant a record area with soy this season, due in large part to a shift away from wheat and corn because of export limits on those crops.

 

Private analysts see planted area at 19 million to 20 million hectares, shattering the 2008-09 record of 16.6 million hectares.

 

If the crop gets the expected boost from El Nino, production could surge as high as 55 million tonnes, up over 15 percent from the previous record in 2006-07, said AgriPac Consultores analyst Pablo Adreani. The increased planting of early soy will add to higher yields, he said.

 

But Adreani's forecast is much more optimistic than others. Panagricola S.A. Vice President Ricardo Baccarin is expecting production of 52 million to 53 million tonnes - still a national record.

 

The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.