October 12, 2009

China's 2009-10 corn production is estimated at 155.0 million tonnes, down 5.0 million or 3 percent from last month and down 10.9 million from last year's record crop, due to serious drought, the US Department of Agriculture said in its monthly crop circular report.

Planted area is estimated at 30.0 million hectares, up 0.2 million from last year's revised area of 29.8 million hectares. Farmers reportedly shifted from soy to corn in 2009 in response to higher relative profits for corn and government policies that favoured grain production. The estimated yield of 5.17 tonnes per hectare is down 7 percent from last year's record yield due to serious drought in parts of northeast and central China, as well as stormy conditions in parts of the North China Plain and southern China.

According to the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), local officials, and crop analysts, a mid-summer drought in Northeast China during the critical reproduction stage caused corn yields to drop this year. Significant yield losses were reported in the many areas, with some locations experiencing total crop failure. Showers in late August and September partially eased the drought but came too late to boost yields. USDA personnel toured Northeast China in late September with the US Grains Council and observed drought-damage (including stunted ears and poor pollination) across the region, particularly in western Jilin, western Liaoning, and eastern Inner Mongolia. Tour participants also noted locally serious lodging and delayed maturity (one to two weeks) but saw little disease or insect damage. Harvesting has started and will continue through October.