October 12, 2009

Late-season weather problems have taken a toll on selected soy crops, with disease and frost damage taking some yield off crops in Mississippi and Ohio.

 

The US Department of Agriculture projected a record soy crop in its October production forecast Friday (October 9), but the rise in output was tempered by reductions in forecasts for some states due to late season weather issues.

 

"Compared with last month, yields are forecast higher or unchanged in all states except Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, and New York," USDA said in its October crop outlook. "The largest decrease in yield from the September forecast is expected in Mississippi where persistent rain during the last two weeks of the month increased the potential impact of disease," USDA reported.

 

USDA projected 2009 US soy production at 3.250 billion bushels, with a yield of 42.4 bushels per acre. The production figure is up from its September estimate at 3.245 billion bushels, using a yield of 42.3 bushels per acre.

 

The Mississippi crop was lowered to 83.5 million bushels from the September forecast of 89 million. The yield was trimmed to 39 bushels an acre from 41 in September. The Ohio crop was estimated at 210.7 million bushels, down from the September forecast of 215.3 million. The Ohio yield was cut by 1 bushel per acre to 46 bushels an acre.

 

"The USDA is right on target for lowering the Mississippi soy crop, as the last six weeks have been brutal, with heavy rains producing mould, rot and phomopsis seed decay," said Trey Koger, soy extension specialist at Mississippi State University.

 

Phomopsis seed decay, a disease that causes cracked, shriveled, mouldy seed, impacts yield and reduces seed quality and grade.

 

"The first of September, Mississippi had a high-quality crop, but now it's a fairly poor-quality crop," Koger said.

 

The Delta's warm, humid and wet conditions are seen as the cause of the soy crop's decline, with on average 10 to 15 percent of yield lost due to disease damage. The longer mature soy sit in wet fields the more vulnerable they are to diseases and seed rot.

 

"Five weeks ago about 25 percent of the Mississippi crop was harvested, and then the crop went three weeks without an acre being harvested," Koger said. The rain caused mould and seed rot.

 

Last week, weather permitted about four days of harvesting, raising the amount harvested to 45 to 50 percent.

 

However, "the problem is once the crop is harvested, you can't segregate out the damaged seeds from the good, so when it goes to market the producer is docked in price, as the elevator or exporter will have to blend good seed in with it to offset the damaged seed," Koger said.

 

"Ninety-five percent of the Mississippi crop is sold directly to the export market and they won't take poor-quality soy, so damaged beans will have to be blended in order to make them higher-quality soy," he added.

 

Overall, the Ohio crop is mature and ranges from very poor to good, said James Beuerlein, agronomist with Ohio State University extension. The problem that Ohio soy faced was a frost that came 10 days earlier than normal, producing small yield losses, with losses in double-cropped soy acres cut in half, Beuerlein said.

 

A hard frost kills the plant, and if its not physiologically mature, it's tough to harvest the beans, as seeds are stuck in the pods. Immature soy is typically left in the field with the residue of the plants, serving as fertilizer for next year.

 

Some full-season variety soy got caught by the frost as well, producing some small yield losses, Beuerlein said. The crop does not have a great deal of disease issues, as diseases don't develop fast in 50 to 60 degree Fahrenheit temperatures, he added.

 

Ten percent of Ohio's soy crop is harvested, down from 33 percent at this time last year, according to the Ohio Agricultural Statistics Service, and phomopsis seed decay is showing up in some soy fields in Ohio.

 

"Phomopsis is typically rare, but conditions this summer with frequent rains and now delayed harvest are the perfect environments for this soy pathogen to take hold," said Anne Dorrance, an Ohio State University extension plant pathologist in a research note.

 

Overall, quality issues are not a concern for the 2009 US soy crop, but Mother Nature and its impact on producers' ability to harvest without problems from the extended wet conditions will determine final yield potential, a cash-connected CBOT floor analyst said.