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October 10, 2016

 

China Live Hog Weekly: Prices tumble amid increased availability, poor demand (week ended Sep 29, 2016)

 

An eFeedLink Exclusive

     

 

Price summary

 

Prices slid significantly.

 

 

Region

Province

Lowest price this week

Highest price this week

Average price this week

Lowest price last week

Highest price last week

Average price last week

Changes

North China

Hebei

16.50

16.80

16.61

17.40

17.70

17.51

-0.90

Henan

16.80

17.40

17.12

17.80

18.00

17.91

-0.79

East China

Shandong

16.60

16.90

16.76

17.50

17.90

17.67

-0.91

Jiangsu

17.60

18.00

17.81

18.00

18.50

18.33

-0.52

Central China

Hunan

17.70

18.30

18.07

18.30

19.20

18.67

-0.60

South China

Guangxi

17.60

18.50

18.02

18.40

19.00

18.64

-0.62

Guangdong

17.70

18.70

18.21

18.10

19.40

18.81

-0.60

Southwest China

Sichuan

18.20

18.50

18.31

18.90

19.10

18.96

-0.65

(All prices in RMB/kg)
RMB1=US$0.1492 (Oct 10)
                                                                                            

 

 

Market analysis

 

Hog farmers' hopes of stronger prices during the last week of September were dashed as pork demand remained sluggish. With releases increasing substantially, lifting pork carcass volumes by 3% to 8,355 tonnes as a result, hog prices tumbled by 3.8% under excess supplies.

 

 

Market forecast                                                          

 

Despite reduced inventories, hog prices are unlikely to firm up during October, which is traditionally a weak month for the livestock market. Prices are expected to stay soft during October and November as consumers cut pork consumption. Entering December, prices should strengthen with pork demand rising due to the cold climates.

 

Pork demand is unlikely to increase significantly as consumers cut expenses while China's economy remains sluggish. Moreover, hog farmers are likely to increase releases fearing that prices will fall prominently entering October. With demand lukewarm and supplies ample, prices of hog will be under pressure.

 


eFeedLink offers monthly China hog and poultry market trackers, including analyses and on-the-ground information from Guangxi, Guangdong, Hunan, Hubei, Sichuan, Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Hebei and the whole of China. These provinces cover at least 70% of the total hog, poultry and related feed production or consumption in China. For more information, visit: http://www.efeedlink.com/eFLResearch


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