October 10, 2013

 

 

US soy exports may climb to a record to 20 million tonnes this quarter as shipments from South America fall amid dwindling supplies, according to Oil World.

 

That compares with 19.2 million tonnes a year earlier and 14.3 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2011.

 

Soy futures slid 7.5% in Chicago trading this year on an outlook for increased production in the US, set to be the world's second-biggest grower of the oilseed after Brazil.

 

Brazil shipped out 97% of its export supplies of soy in the year's first nine months, according to Oil World.

 

"US soy exports will have to be stepped up significantly, especially if compared to the preceding seven months, to satisfy world import demand," the researcher wrote. "With US exports in September still very low, they will now have to accelerate."

The US exported 5.83 million tonnes of soy in the six months through September, compared with 15.2 million tonnes a year earlier and 10.4 million tonnes in the equivalent period in 2011, according to Oil World. Brazil's six-month shipments rose to 39.6 million tonnes from 29 million tonnes a year earlier and 27.9 million tonnes in the same period in 2011, the report showed.

 

US soy deliveries are expected to average 6.7 million tonnes a month this quarter, from 1.14 million tonnes shipped in September and 370,000 tonnes in August.

 

South American soy exports are estimated at 3.78 million tonnes in the fourth quarter, up from 2.16 million tonnes a year earlier and compared with 7.23 million tonnes in the final three months of 2011.

 

Argentina is the "major swing factor" for deliveries from South America, as Brazil is left with 1.4 million tonnes of soy for export in the fourth quarter after shipping out 40.6 million tonnes in the first nine months, Oil World wrote.

 

Farmers in Argentina have been "reserved" soy sellers as they retain crops as a hedge against inflation and wait for a potential devaluation of the official currency exchange rate, the industry researcher wrote. The country's fourth-quarter exports of the oilseed may be 1.74 million tonnes, from 600,000 tonnes a year earlier, according to Oil World.

 

South American summer crop planting is delayed after "unusually" dry conditions in parts of Brazil and Argentina. Farmers in Argentina are unlikely to fully realise corn and sunflower sowing, potentially resulting in a record soy area of 20 million hectares (49 million acres). Brazilian growers may also switch area to soy, according to Oil World.

 

Should moisture shortages continue until November in Brazil and December in Argentina, soy planting will be curtailed and conditions for early germination will be "unsatisfactory," creating bullish conditions for the oilseed, Oil World stated.