October 8, 2008
US corn, soy harvest pace behind average
US corn and soy maturity and harvests maintained their below-normal pace as of Sunday, while winter wheat planting remained on par with its normal seeding pace, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (October 6) in its weekly crop progress report.
The USDA said 14 percent of the corn crop was harvested as of October 5, up from 9 percent last week and below the five-year average of 30 percent. Last year, 39 percent of the crop had been harvested.
Analysts had predicted harvest progress at 18 percent to 22 percent.
In Illinois, 10 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 4 percent last week but below the five-year average of 48 percent. Iowa's corn harvest was 3 percent complete, compared to 2 percent last week and the five-year average of 15 percent.
The pace was expected by the market, and it illustrates the crop is lagging and farmers are unwilling to take field losses on soy, as corn can withstand cold temperatures better than soy, he added.
The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said light frost was seen over the weekend in parts of the northern Midwest, but likely did little or no damage to crops. Widespread rain of up to half an inch slowed or stopped harvest progress. More rain is expected in the western Midwest Monday and Tuesday. That system will move into the east Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall totals are expected to be up to an inch in the western Midwest and up to an inch and a half in the eastern Midwest over the next couple days.
Seventy-three percent of the corn crop was mature, up from 52 percent last week and the five-year average of 89 percent, according to USDA. Last year, 95 percent of the crop was mature. The USDA said 61 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week.
The USDA said 31 percent of the soy crop was harvested, up from 9 percent last week, but below the five-year average of 41 percent. Last year, 43 percent of the crop had been harvested.
Analysts had predicted 22 percent to 26 percent of the crop would be harvested.
In Iowa, 37 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 8 percent last week and the five-year average of 56 percent. Illinois' harvest was 22 percent complete, up from 6 percent last week but below the five-year average of 47 percent.
In Indiana, 38 percent of the soy crop was harvested, up from 15 percent last week and the five-year average of 34 percent. In Minnesota, 46 percent of the crop was harvested, up from 8 percent last week, but below the five-year average of 50 percent.
The report showed the soy harvest pace is moving at a faster clip than the trade was anticipating despite lagging the normal pace of cuttings, said Don Roose, president US Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.
The USDA said 83 percent of the soy crop was dropping leaves, compared to 68 percent a week ago and the five-year average of 91 percent.
The USDA said 57 percent of the crop was in good-to-excellent condition, unchanged from last week.
"I'm surprised the bean crop ratings did not drop, with all the reports from early harvests of poor yields," said Jack Scoville, analyst with Price Futures Group in Chicago.
Winter wheat planting was 59 percent complete as of Sunday, exceeding the 54 percent reported last year and on par with the five-year average of 60 percent, according to USDA. A week ago, 42 percent of the crop had been sown.
In Kansas, 64 percent of the winter wheat crop was planted, compared to 50 percent at this time in 2007 and the five-year average of 59 percent. In Oklahoma, 59 percent of the crop was planted, up from 47 percent last year and the five-year average of 62 percent.
In Texas, 54 percent of the crop had been sown, compared with 46 percent last year and the five-year average of 59 percent, USDA reported. Nebraska farmers were 85 percent complete with seeding, down from 87 percent in 2007 and the five-year average of 88 percent.
Winter wheat plantings are off to a good start, with emergence looking good and beneficial rains slated to move from the Plains into the Midwest this week, McCambridge said.
The planting and emergence rates of soft red winter wheat in the Midwest are lagging because of delayed harvesting of soy crops in the area, but the progress of the other wheat classes are moving along well, he added.
In fact, "the rapid pace of seedings in the western belt could encourage more plantings," McCambridge said.
The USDA said 28 percent of the winter wheat crop had emerged, down from 25 percent last year and down from the five-year average of 30 percent. Last week, 14 percent of the crop had emerged.
In Kansas, 31 percent of the crop had emerged, compared to 19 percent last year and the five-year average of 27 percent. In Texas, 26 percent of the crop had emerged, compared to 20 percent last year and the five-year average of 29 percent.
