October 8, 2004

South African 2003/04 Corn Crop Seen At 9.4 Million MT

South Africa's 2003/04 corn crop is officially estimated at 8.9 million metric tons, the agriculture attache estimates the crop at 9.4 million tons, which is 500,000 tons more, according to the US Department of Agriculture.

SUMMARY

South Africa's 2003 corn crop (2003 indicating the year of planting) is currently officially estimated at 8.9 million tons, 1.9 million tons more than the initial estimate made in February. The 27% increase is indicative of the much more favorable conditions and widespread rainfall over the second half of the season, as well as the importance of the distribution of the rainfall over the season.

We estimate the 2003 crop at 9.4 million tons, about 500,000 tons more than the official estimate, the report. The supposedly final estimate is under pressure from deliveries to the silos. About 8.67 million tons has already been received from March 2004 to the end of August.

Between September and the end of February 2005, another 130,000 tons can be delivered pushing the total to 8.8 million tons. Farm retentions are considered to be about 400,000, which must be added for a total commercial crop of 9.2 million tons.

If the 200,000 tons in the developing sector is added, the total crop estimated increases to 9.4 million tons and the average yield to 3.13 tons per hectare, the second highest on record, the report said. This is leading to a considerable oversupply situation again as exports have been slow.

Planting intentions for the new growing season, which is due to start soon, are to increase the area planted on commercial farms to 2.85 million ha. compared with the 2.65 million ha. planted in 2003. This could lead to another 9-million-ton-plus crop aggravating the oversupply at current prices and exchange rate.

The 2004 wheat plantings increased to 851,000 hectares after only 748,000 hectares were planted in 2003. The crop estimate is 2.05 million tons compared with the 1.54 million tons produced last year. A small import tariff of R18.67 or $2.84/ton was announced in August. But this is not expected to affect imports, which reached about 1.28 million tons in 2003/04 and could reach 900,000 tons again in 2004/05. The US supplied about 44% of the imports.