Brazil soy crop seen at 64 million tonnes in 2009-10

 

 

Brazil should produce a record soy crop of 63 million to 64 million tonnes in 2009-10, industry participants said Tuesday (Oct 6).

 

Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, will release its first official estimate of the 2009-10 soy crop Wednesday.

 

Industry participants expect Conab's estimate to be in the range of 63 million to 64 million tonnes - in line with the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove, estimate last week of 63.5 million tonbes.

 

"Conab should be around the same as AgRural's estimate of 63.6 million tonnes and 22.5 million hectares used for soy in 2009-10," Eduardo Godoi, an analyst at consultancy AgRural in Mato Grosso, told Dow Jones Newswires.

 

Brazilian producers are just starting to plant their new 2009-10 soy crop and the first beans should be harvested at the start of next year.

 

The wet weather has been favourable across most of Mato Grosso state, Brazil's number one soy-producing state, for the planting, Godoi said.

 

Planting will really pick up pace in other Brazilian states such as Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul and Parana in the second half of October, he said.

 

Godoi warned that unseasonal heavy rain can cause diseases such as soy rust and isolated cases are already appearing. However, farmers can spray the crops with pesticides to control the disease and this tends to avoid a decrease in yields, he said.

 

Steve Cachia, a grains analyst at Cerealpar in Parana, agreed that Brazil's soy crop should be around 63 million to 64 million tonnes as farmers plant more soy rather than less-profitable corn.

 

Cachia said the weather has been favourable, with the rains dampening the soil and helping planting.

 

A chief trader at a major US soy buyer also puts the new crop in the same range. "I prefer to remain conservative at 63-63.5 million tonnes as it's still early days," the trader said.

 

But he added that there's certainly potential for up to 65 million tonnes, depending on factors such as the weather.

 

Conab said in an estimate on September 8 that Brazil harvested 57 million tonnes of soy on 21.7 million hectares from the old 2008-09 crop.

 

Brazil is the world's second-leading soy producer, behind the US.