CBOT Soy Outlook on Wednesday: Steady to mixed; market lacks fresh news
CBOT soybean futures are seen starting 1 cent lower to 1 cent higher. In overnight action, Nov soybeans were 3/4 cent lower at US$9.09 1/4.
The market remains on weather watch, with threats to late crop development and harvest operations eyed, as some participants look to consolidate positions ahead of Friday's crop reports, analysts said.
The anticipation of record crop forecasts amid robust yield reports from early harvests coupled with trade speculation that a weekend freeze in the Midwest will cause only minimal soybean crop damage is limiting buyer interest, analysts said.
Many participants are heading to the sidelines ahead of Friday's reports.
However, the tight availability of nearby supplies and harvest delays slowing the movement of grain into the cash pipeline provides underlying support. Strength in precious metals and crude oil generates outside strength for prices as well.
U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its crop production and supply/demand reports at 8:30 a.m. EDT Friday.
A technical analyst said first resistance for November soybeans is seen at Tuesday's high of US$9.21 and then at US$9.33. First support is seen at US$9.00 and then at Tuesday's low of US$8.84 1/4.
The DTN Meteorlogix weather forecast said very cold conditions at the end of the week and during the weekend will help firm the ground and improve conditions for the harvest in the U.S. Midwest, especially through the Dakotas and Minnesota. Any immature crops, especially in the north plains and western Midwest, will be at risk of damage as temperatures likely will fall into the 20s Fahrenheit with this system, ending the growing season in much of this area, Meteorlogix said.
National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, on Wednesday estimated Brazil's new 2009-10 soy crop at between 62.3 million metric tonnes and 63.3 million tonnes. Conab, which is part of Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture, said the area of land devoted to soy will be between 22.2 million hectares and 22.6 million hectares in 2009-10, compared with 21.7 million hectares in 2008-09.
In overseas markets, crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivatives exchange rallied for the third consecutive day as investors covered shorts while a weaker dollar prompted funds to flow into commodity markets, trade participants said. The benchmark December contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR15 higher at MYR2,077 a metric tonne.
China's soybean, soymeal, soyoil, futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were closed overnight, as the exchange is closed for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays.
