October 6, 2010

USGC forecasts China's corn output at 158 million tonnes

The US Grains Council (USGC) on Tuesday (Oct 5) estimated China's 2010 corn production at 158 million tonnes, following the organisation's annual China corn tour.

The figure is below the US Department of Agriculture's current China crop estimate of 166 million tonnes, but up from USDA's 2009/10 harvest estimate of 155 million.

"Production is better than last year. Quality is also better than last year, but it's still going to be a tight supply and demand situation," said Kevin Latner, USGC director in China.

China, the world's largest importer of soy, made its first large purchase of US corn in nearly four years this past spring to help cool rising domestic grain prices.

The council said China would likely import two million tonnes of corn and 2.5 million to three million tonnes of distillers' dried grains (DDGs) in calendar year 2011.

"I would not be surprised to see exports of corn as high as three million tonnes, but that remains to be seen," said Thomas Dorr, president and chief executive of the council.

Dorr also said China's demand for corn, due to its growing livestock production and needs for animal feed, was poised to grow substantially, with the country importing as much as 15 million tonnes of corn on an annual basis by 2015.

The council's China tour last week covered 71% of the country's corn production region. Participants took 300 samples from seven major corn production areas and estimated the country's average yield at 5.39 tonnes per hectare.