US corn, soy harvest lag average pace

 

 

The US corn and soy crops remain behind schedule as harvest proceeds slowly, according to the government's crop progress report Monday (Oct 5).

 

The US Department of Agriculture's crop progress report showed that both crops continue to lag their normal pace, but analysts said that threats to the crops are waning as October progresses.

 

"For the second year in a row, we dodged a major bullet," said Joel Karlin, analyst with Western Milling.

 

The USDA said that 79 percent of the soy crop was dropping leaves, up from 63 percent the previous week but down from the average of 88 percent.

 

Fifteen percent of the crop was harvested, down from 25 percent at the same time last year and the five-year average of 36 percent.

 

"That maturity with the corn, as well as the soy, we're going to get 90 percent of this crop free from any frost or freeze," said Joe Victor, vice president of marketing for Allendale.

 

However, the lagging harvest does raise quality concerns for the soy, Victor said. That could support basis, he said.

 

Victor noted quality concerns with crops in states along the Mississippi River. Mold is a concern, and Victor said that reports from Arkansas indicate the crop there is still green and nowhere near harvest.

 

But Karlin said the crop overall is shaping up to be strong. Some analysts have said that early soy yield reports have exceeded expectations.

 

"There seems to be a more uniform opinion that the USDA is really underestimating soy yield, that this thing could be over 44 bushels per acre," Karlin said.

 

The crop continues to look good. The USDA said that 67 percent of the soy crop was in good to excellent condition, up one percentage point from last week.

 

The USDA said that 57 percent of the corn crop was mature, up from 37 percent the prior week but still well below the five-year average of 84 percent.

 

Among the states furthest behind is key corn producer Illinois, where only 41 percent of the crop was mature, down from 73 percent last year and the average of 93 percent. Indiana, another key producer, was only 51 percent mature, compared with the average of 85 percent, and Minnesota's crop was only 37 percent mature, compared with the average of 77 percent.

 

As a result, harvest is running behind schedule, with only 10 percent of the crop harvested, compared with 13 percent last year and the average of 25 percent.

 

The delayed harvest is not as much of a quality issue for corn as it is for soy, Victor said.

 

Some analysts say that with barely more than half the crop mature, it remains vulnerable to a frost, which could hit parts of the corn belt this weekend. But Karlin said the crop is mostly out of the woods, and that by the time it has dented, the potential damage from a frost or freeze is minimal. The USDA said that 95 percent of the crop had dented.

 

"I think that some of the northern states are going to lose some bushels, lose some test weights, but the majority of the corn belt I think is really going to be fine," Karlin said.

 

Contrary to most years, the crop ratings have not only held steady, but have continued to improve. The USDA said that 70 percent of the corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 68 percent the prior week and 61 percent for the same time last year.

 

A couple of analysts said that farmers will likely leave their corn in the field due to weak prices, and their reluctance to pay to dry down the corn. They will harvest soy in the meantime, they said.

 

Analysts said winter wheat planting is progressing without major problems. The USDA said that 53 percent of the crop had been planted as of Sunday (Oct 4), up from 36 percent last week and down slightly from that average of 55 percent.

 

Twenty-six percent of the crop had emerged, compared with 25 percent the prior year and the average of 27 percent.