Showers boost Argentina wheat, corn
Conditions continue to improve across Argentina's farm belt as spring showers boosted the developing wheat crop and auger well for corn planting, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report late Friday (Oct 2).
In the Pergamino district of Buenos Aires province, recent rainfall has spurred wheat development, although cold weather and frost over the last week have slowed growth, the Secretariat said.
Still, planted area is down significantly - between 45 percent and 50 percent in Pergamino, according to the Secretariat.
Nationwide, planted area is down 40 percent on the season, which will greatly limit output, according to the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange.
But conditions are much better this year compared to the severe drought suffered during the 2008-09 season.
This has boosted expectations of a possible 30-percent rise in yields over last season, up from a week-earlier estimate of a 28-percent increase, the Buenos Aires exchange said on last Wednesday (Sept 30).
While the Buenos Aires exchange has only projected planted area so far, the Rosario Grain Exchange says 2009-10 wheat production is likely to total about 7.4 million tonnes. That would be down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-09, and down sharply from the average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.
With domestic demand pegged at 6.5 million tonnes by the government, just 900,000 tonnes of wheat are likely to be left over for export from the 2009-10 crop. The US Department of Agriculture is expecting Argentina to export 1.5 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour from the 2009-10 crop.
Corn planting has benefited from the showers, although muddy conditions and cool temperatures have slowed seeding, the Secretariat said.
In the important corn-growing areas in Cordoba province, planted area is expected to fall, but conditions are generally good, the Secretariat said.
To date, 19.7 percent of the forecast 1.875 million hectares have been seeded with corn, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.
The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts total corn planting of 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes.
The government has pegged domestic consumption of corn from the 2009-10 crop at eight million tonnes, leaving an equal amount available for export, according to the Rosario exchange.
The USDA forecasts seven million tonnes of exports from the 2009-10 corn crop.
Sunflower seed planting continues to lag because of a severe drought in northern fields.
In the northern Chaco and Santiago de Estero provinces, increased rainfall is needed soon or farmers are likely to wait and plant soy instead, the Secretariat said.
In addition, ants and birds are wreaking havoc with the sunseed crops in Entre Rios province.
On Wednesday, the Buenos Aires exchange cut its forecast for planted area to 1.9 million hectares from a previous forecast of 2.05 million on September 23.
The latest estimate is down 14.8 percent from the 2.23 million hectares planted in the 2008-09 season.
As of Wednesday, 10.2 percent of the forecast sunseed area had been planted, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.
The Rosario Grain exchange forecasts sunseed production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about three million tonnes last season when yields suffered due to drought.
Soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season.
Planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during the 2009-10 season, according to private analysts. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.
The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.
In addition to weather factors, the fact that soy are the only major crop in which the government doesn't control exports is spurring farmers to plant more of the oilseed. Argentina limits the export of wheat and corn to ensure domestic supply and keep down local prices.
