October 6, 2009

US Wheat Outlook on Tuesday: Seen up 7-10 cents on corn, soy spillover
 

 

U.S. wheat futures are expected to jump at the start of Tuesday’s day session on spillover support from firm Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybeans.

 

CBOT December wheat is called to open 7 to 10 cents per bushel higher. In overnight electronic trading, CBOT December wheat climbed 9 1/2 cents to US$4.52 1/4.

 

Wheat is following corn and soybeans amid a lack of fresh fundamental news, traders said. Weakness in the U.S. dollar adds support, as it makes U.S. grains more attractive to foreign buyers, they said.

 

The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing CBOT December wheat below solid technical support at US$4.25, a technical analyst said. The bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close the contract above solid technical resistance at US$5.00, he said.

 

First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of US$4.52 and then at US$4.60. First support lies at Monday’s contract low of US$4.39 1/4 and then at US$4.30.

 

"We seem to be in the following mode," a CBOT floor trader said.

 

Stabilizing world wheat values could help underpin gains, a trader said. Russian feed wheat has rallied roughly US$10 per metric tonne in the past week to US$145 per tonne, according to AgResource Company.

 

The U.S. competes with Russia and other countries for export business on the global market. Demand for U.S. wheat has been lackluster so far this marketing year as there is plenty of wheat available around the world.

 

The demand front was mostly quiet for wheat overnight. Japan said it was seeking 149,000 tonnes of wheat, including 86,000 tonnes from the U.S., in a routine tender.

 

In other news, 53% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was planted as of Sunday, compared with the average of 55%, and 26% was emerged, compared with the average of 27%, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Analysts said seeding and development are progressing without major problems.

 

Periodic shower activity will favor germination and early growth of hard red winter wheat in the central and southern Plains, according to private weather firm DTN Meteorlogix. Intervals of drier weather allow for good planting progress in most areas, the firm said.

 

Dryness continues to impact filling wheat in Australia’s northern New South Wales and southern Queensland, but there is no significant rain forecasted for the area, according to Meteorlogix. Showers are possible in Argentina this weekend but mostly for northern and eastern wheat areas and the major corn/soybean growing areas, the firm said.

 

A few significant showers were reported over the dry southeast Ukraine during the weekend. It is beneficial, but more widespread rain is needed after a dry summer, according to Meteorlogix. Forecasts look mainly dry this week, the firm said.  
   

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