October 5, 2012

New Zealand's beef exports are expected to rise 4.9% on-year for 2012-2013, to 360,000 tonnes.

Underpinning the boost in shipments is an increase in export slaughter numbers, up 7.8% on-year, to 2.27 million head -  largely due to the improved season, expanded dairy herd and carryover of cull cows from last season.

With the growth in export volumes comes an associated increase in values, estimated to rise 7.5% on-year, to US$2.64 billion FOB. Despite the expectation for the exchange rate to remain strong throughout 2012-2013, the export price of beef is expected to lift 2.4% on 2011-2012, to US$5,947 per tonne, predominantly driven by strong demand from key markets, such as the US and North Asia.

Slaughter is expected to increase for all classes of cattle throughout 2012-2013, with cow slaughter the primary driver of this increase, contributing 37% of total export slaughter. Consequently, carcass weights are expected to decrease 2.6% on-year, to an average of 254.5 kilogrammes per head, largely reflecting the increased cull cow slaughter.