October 5, 2012

Due to the poor quantity and quality of this year's crop, of which only 4% of supplies from top-grade varieties reached top milling standards, UK wheat imports could exceed the recent high set five years ago.

The UK, the EU's third-ranked wheat producer, and usually a firm net exporter, imported 1.44 million tonnes of grain in 2007-08, the last "comparable season" to this one, the HGCA crop bureau said.

However, even though the harvest that year in quantity fell short even of the 13.5 million-14.2 million tonnes expected from this year's crop, thanks to a drop in seedings, it was better on quality.

Furthermore, "demand in 2007-08 was around 500,000 tonnes lower than current levels", HGCA market specialists analyst Charlotte Garbutt said.

Demand is being whetted in part by the poor quality of this year's crop, of which only 4% of Group one varieties have met the full milling specification this year, compared with 40% last year.

For Group three soft wheat, biscuit grade grain above the Group four feed level, 16% ticked all the boxes, compared with 73% in 2011. These shortfalls imply "increased wheat consumption by the milling sector to compensate for poorer flour extraction rates", Garbutt said.

Furthermore, demand is being whetted by the restart of the Ensus bioethanol plant, which swallows some 100,000 tonnes of wheat a month, with the nearby Vivergo site, of similar capacity, set to open later this year.

Making up the gap in supplies means "it is possible that 2012-13 imports will be some of the highest in recent years", Garbutt said. It 2011-12, the UK imported 867,170 tonnes of wheat, compared with exports of 2.39 million tonnes, according to customs data.

However, there are already signs of buoyant UK demand for foreign supplies, with the country in July, the first month of 2012-13, a net importer, by more than 100,000 tonnes. Trade talk has mentioned a particular UK demand for high grade milling wheat, largely sourced in Germany, with some softer grades purchased from Scandinavia, and potentially even working from the US. There is also speculation of potential imports of Ukrainian corn to replace wheat in feed.