October 5, 2009

Brazilian cattle prices are expected to increase over the remainder of the local off-season (June to November), as this year's feedlot output is expected to be 20 percent lower compared to 2008, given sluggish beef demand and high feeder cattle and input prices.

The forecast is based on the Brazilian Lotfeeders' Association third annual survey, which reveals confinement intentions of the 47 largest lotfeeders.

 

Prices have generally remained stable during the off-season with a slight rise in recent weeks. However, heavy steer prices in local currency terms remain 11 percent lower when compared to the same period in 2008, as a result of the slump in domestic and international beef demand, but are still 31 percent higher than in 2007. Brazilian cattle supply remains tight as producers rebuild the herd following high slaughter rates prior to 2007, in addition to more attractive returns from other agricultural crops.