October 4, 2010

 

Informa raises final US 2010 corn crop to 12.9 billion bushels

Analytical firm Informa Economics raised its estimate of the final 2010 US corn yield to 158.7 bushels per acre, from 158.5 last month, to a total of 12.9 billion bushels, according to trade sources Friday (Oct 1).

 

Informa also issued a second set of corn estimates, outlining what it expected the USDA to change in its October 8 monthly crop report.

 

Informa said it expected USDA to lower its US corn yield forecast to 160.3 bushels/acre next week, from USDA's September forecast of 162.5.

 

Informa expected USDA to cut its US corn production forecast in October to 13.023 billion bushels, from 13.16 billion in September.

 

Informa, based in Memphis, Tennessee, gave a single estimate for soy production, pegging this year's US harvest at 3.420 billion bushels, with an average yield of 44.7 bpa, trade sources said.

 

The soy yield figure matches USDA's September forecast of 44.7 bushels/acre, while Informa's soy production estimate is below USDA's September forecast of 3.483 billion bushels.

 

Last week, Informa said it cut its estimate of US soy planted acreage for 2010 by 1.4 million acres.

 

Corn futures on the CBOT fell after Informa's numbers were released at midmorning, adding pressure to a market hit by fund long liquidation one day after a bearish US government grain stocks report.

 

By 11:45 a.m. CDT (1645 GMT), the spot December contract <CZ0> was down US$0.23-3/4 at US$4.72 per bushel.

 

Traders said the rise in Informa's final corn yield forecast, to 158.7 bushels/acre, was bearish. Also, some viewed the firm's prediction of USDA's corn yield forecast of 160.3 bushels/acre, while down from September, as bearish because it was still above 160 bushels per acre.

 

"Most people were thinking under 160," ABN AMRO analyst Charlie Sernatinger said.