October 3, 2005
ASA Weekly: 2004-05 US soybean stocks up 127 percent from last year; USDA to provide transportation differentials
2004-05 US soybean stocks up 127 percent from last year
USDA released its estimates of 2004-05 ending US soybean stocks on Sep 30. The soybean stocks estimate of 6.97 million tonnes, up 127 percent from a year ago, but much lower than the 7.97 million tonne pre-report estimate.
Of the USDA estimate, 2.71 million tonnes were on farms and 4.25 million tonnes were off-farm stocks. The on-farm total was 237 percent higher than a year ago and the off-farm total was 88 percent higher than a year ago, USDA said.
USDA lowered its 2004 crop estimate, but the implied residual loss for the quarter and season remains unusually large. This may lead analysts to boost residual usage estimates for 2005-06 and question further the accuracy of the 2004 crop estimate.
However, 6.97 million tonnes will become the starting stocks level for the 2005-06 season with attention now centring on the 2005 crop estimate.
Harvest reports point to a potentially major upward revision of the US 2005 soybean crop estimate in coming reports, according to analysts. Therefore, market rallies are likely to be met with expanded producer selling, limiting any gains.
USDA to provide transportation differentials
USDA announced last week it would provide transportation differentials to cover the cost of moving grain across other modes and handling locations.
"These actions, in conjunction with the tremendous work being performed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, will help the transportation system return to normal as quickly as possible," said Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns.
"The drought is contributing to the stress along the Mississippi River by decreasing the flow, so we are encouraging alternative routes and means of transportation in addition to the steps we are taking to relieve the pressure on farmers and related businesses."
USDA is providing a temporary incentive to assist immediate movement of around 140 barges of damaged corn out of New Orleans to up-river locations. Once unloaded, the empty barges will continue up the river to load and begin moving new-crop commodities.
In addition, to help producers deliver and sell crops in the absence of barge transportation caused by the hurricane, USDA also will pay incentives for alternative storage of up to 50 million bushels of grain. These actions are expected to ease pressure on producers to market commodities under adverse conditions.
To reduce stress on the central Gulf transportation and handling system, USDA will provide a transportation differential to cover the costs of moving grain to other river transportation modes and handling and locations.
USDA will also allow producers forfeiting commodities to USDA the opportunity to buy back the grain when their farm-stored loans mature at the end of September and October. This opportunity to purchase is offered on a state-by-state basis and will be available for 60 days at the posted county price. These producers typically would be required to immediately move the forfeited commodity to commercial warehouses.
This would reduce the pressure on commercial storage availability, according to USDA.
ARS develops soybean with cyst nematode and pathogen resistance
The Agricultural Research Service (ARS) and the Tennessee Agricultural Experiment Station in Knoxville have developed new breeds of soybean that have broad resistance to multiple races of soybean cyst nematode (SCN). This is the most destructive soybean pest in the US, causing an annual estimated loss of US$1.1 billion.
The new soybean, currently named JTN-5303, yields significantly higher than the popular breeds Hartwig, Fowler and Anand, and has resistance to widespread nematode populations.
The breeds also have shown resistance to several fungal pathogens, including sudden death syndrome, stem canker, and frogeye leaf spot, with moderate resistance to charcoal rot. Previous lines have never had this unique combination of resistance to both SCN and pathogens.
The new lines are well adapted to production in the Mid-South, according to the ARS and Tennessee researchers.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
¡¡ |
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
4,853 |
3,059 |
8,029 |
1,630 |
2,046 |
3,670 |
3,129 |
2,086 |
934 |
|
Production |
66,778 |
85,484 |
77,740 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
39,000 |
50,500 |
51,000 |
60,000 |
|
Imports |
151 |
136 |
108 |
540 |
530 |
485 |
350 |
470 |
200 |
|
Crush |
41,631 |
46,267 |
45,858 |
25,072 |
26,800 |
28,500 |
29,172 |
29,000 |
31,583 |
|
Exports |
23,946 |
29,801 |
30,345 |
6,500 |
9,311 |
9,800 |
19,571 |
20,300 |
23,200 |
|
Other |
3,146 |
4,582 |
4,095 |
1,552 |
1,795 |
2,010 |
3,150 |
3,322 |
3,575 |
|
Usage |
68,723 |
80,650 |
80,298 |
33,124 |
37,906 |
40,310 |
51,893 |
52,622 |
58,358 |
|
Carryout |
3,059 |
8,029 |
5,579 |
2,046 |
3,670 |
2,845 |
2,086 |
934 |
2,776 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
200 |
191 |
236 |
347 |
354 |
529 |
763 |
532 |
300 |
|
Production |
32,953 |
36,863 |
36,355 |
19,807 |
21,172 |
22,515 |
22,920 |
22,852 |
24,792 |
|
Domestic use |
28,590 |
30,300 |
30,708 |
700 |
850 |
950 |
8,784 |
8,950 |
9,450 |
|
Net Exports |
4,372 |
6,518 |
5,656 |
19,100 |
20,147 |
21,704 |
14,367 |
14,134 |
15,192 |
|
Usage |
32,962 |
36,818 |
36,364 |
19,800 |
20,997 |
22,654 |
23,151 |
23,084 |
24,642 |
|
Carryout |
191 |
236 |
227 |
354 |
529 |
390 |
532 |
300 |
450 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
676 |
488 |
781 |
99 |
74 |
100 |
150 |
93 |
120 |
|
Production |
7,748 |
8,764 |
8,607 |
4,513 |
4,824 |
5,130 |
5,258 |
5,220 |
5,685 |
|
Domestic use |
7,651 |
7,847 |
8,006 |
140 |
145 |
155 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
2,920 |
|
Net exports |
285 |
624 |
651 |
4,398 |
4,653 |
5,000 |
2,605 |
2,408 |
2,735 |
|
Usage |
7,936 |
8,471 |
8,657 |
4,538 |
4,798 |
5,155 |
5,315 |
5,193 |
5,655 |
|
Carryout |
488 |
781 |
731 |
74 |
100 |
75 |
93 |
120 |
150 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 22 September 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Barbados |
Soybeans |
2.8 |
2.2 |
|
Egypt |
Soymeal |
0.7 |
161.9 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
5.2 |
10.7 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1.7 |
259.6 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
363.3 |
117.3 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
13.9 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
3.8 |
0 |
|
Indonesia |
Soymeal |
0.1 |
87.6 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
15 |
0 |
|
Jamaica |
Soymeal |
3.9 |
93.9 |
|
Egypt |
Soybeans |
0.7 |
9.7 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
1.7 |
374.8 |
|
Indonesia |
Soybeans |
5.3 |
89.2 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
11.9 |
1149.2 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
46.6 |
47.3 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
121.4 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
98.7 |
131.8 |
|
||||
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
39.4 |
56.3 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Algeria |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
115.2 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
14.7 |
985.2 |
|
Soybeans |
5,473.30 |
530.7 |
675.8 |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
0.7 |
212.8 |
|
Soymeal |
311.3 |
5,908.50 |
44.5 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
253.1 |
|
Soyoil |
23.8 |
422.7 |
-0.6 |
| Note: New marketing year for soybeans began September 1, 2005 | ||||||||
