October 2, 2012

Brazil's 2012-13 soy harvest is expected to reach 79.08 million tonnes, up almost a million tonnes from its September forecast of 78.1 million tonnes.

This is according to local analyst Celeres' third outlook on the new crop on Monday (Oct 1) as the forecast was raised after data showed planted area growing beyond previous estimates.

Soy area, now in the early stages of being planted, will grow to a record 27.44 million hectares, up 1% from September's estimate and up 9% from last year. Some of the added area will come from corn fields, Celeres said.

The No. one soy producing state of Mato Grosso will account for most of the new soy area, adding an additional 11% to its soy area forecast at 7.78 million hectares.

All of the main producing states, such as Parana, Rio Grande do Sul, Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, and even lesser but still important producer states such as Minas Gerais and Bahia, will sow additional fields with soy this season, Celeres data showed.

In a separate report, Celeres said the country's corn output was seen at 76.05 million tonnes, down 400,000 tonnes from its forecast in September due to decreased planted area. Farmers have been drawn to the better returns from soy at current prices, Celeres said.

Farmers have already sold 46% of the new soy crop now being planted, up from 26% of last year's crop sold at this time in 2011, Celeres said. Producers have been motivated to lock in prices on forward sales of the crop that will be harvested in the first half of 2013.

The old soy crop of 66.3 million tonnes that ended harvest in May is 98% sold, up from 91% at this time a year ago, Celeres said.

Weather looks ready to contribute to record soy output this year in Brazil, which suffered a drought last season that erased roughly 10 million tonnes of output potential.