October 2, 2012

China's pork production is expected to increase about 2% to 52.65 million tonnes in 2013.

Concerns over low prices and oversupplies of swine and pork have triggered producers to slaughter some of their sow inventory, leading to a slight negative growth in sow beginning stocks in 2013.

In response to less sow inventory, pig crop production in 2013 is only expected to increase only 1% to 690 million heads. Floods in some swine producing provinces during July-August 2012 and higher feed grain prices are expected to cause smaller-than-expected slaughter weight.

Total pork consumption in 2013 is forecast to increase modestly by 2% to 53.1 million tonnes. The slower pace of increases in pork production will likely drive imports by 5%. Strong demand for swine genetic improvement to raise efficiency attributed to higher feed grain prices are projected to drive 2013 breeding swine imports up 11% to 20,000 heads.

Pork exports are forecast to decline by 7% due to considerably reduced exports to Hong Kong, China's largest export market, which is strongly challenged by competitively priced Brazilian exports to Hong Kong. Exports to Japan, the second largest export market, will likely be dampened by weak demand. These two markets account for over 70% of China's total exports. Live swine exports will remain at 1.61 million heads due to level demand in Hong Kong and Macau, the only exports markets.