CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Lower; overnight theme, outside markets

 

 

CBOT soybean futures are called 5-to-7 cents lower.

 

In overnight electronic trading, November soybeans were 6 3/4 cents lower at US$10.46 1/4. December soyoil was 36 points lower at 44.32 cents per pound and December soymeal was US$0.20 lower at US$286.00 per short tonne.

 

A firmer U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices are seen weighing on futures, with the trade lacking any bullish conviction to push prices upward in uncertain economic times, a CBOT floor analyst said.

 

Consolidative price action is expected, but a penetration of recent lows at US$10.40 per bushel basis of the November contract could trigger technical liquidation once again, he added.

 

Fundamental news is expected to take a back seat, with lower production estimates from private forecasters offset by favorable near term weather outlooks for harvesting and late maturing crops.

 

Weekly soybean export sales and revised soyoil stocks data are not seen impacting prices, but solid weekly sales for the soy products may provide underlying strength in meal and oil, traders added.

 

A market technician said the next upside price objective for November soybeans is to push and close prices above psychological resistance at US$11.00 a bushel. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at US$10.00.

 

First resistance for November soybeans is seen at today's high of US$10.66 and then at US$10.96. First support is seen at this week's low of US$10.39 and then at US$10.25.

 

U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 471,000 metric tonnes for the week ended Sept. 25. Analysts had forecast sales between 400,000 and 800,000 metric tonnes. The primary buyer was China with 318,100 tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 135,100 tonnes, above trade estimates ranging from 50,000 to 125,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were a net 11,400 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between zero and 10,000 tonnes.

 

The U.S. Census Bureau revised its August soyoil stocks figure to 2.599 billion pounds, up from its preliminary estimate released in the August Census crush report of 2.589 billion pounds. The stocks figure is down from the July figure of 2.783 billion.

 

Commodity risk management firm FC Stone on Wednesday estimated the 2008-09 U.S. soybean crop at 2.889 billion bushels, with a yield of 39.4 bushels per acre. The estimates represent a decrease from the firm's previous estimates.

 

In September, FC Stone projected a soybean crop of 3.003 billion bushels, with a yield of 41.0 bushels per acre. USDA in September estimated 2008 U.S. soybean production at 2.934 billion bushels, with a yield of 40.0 bushels per acre. The USDA is scheduled to release updated estimates Oct. 10 at 8:30 a.m., EDT.

 

In deliveries, Oct soymeal deliveries totaled 119 lots. Issuers and stoppers were scattered among various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was Sept. 19.

 

Oct soyoil deliveries totaled 3,532 lots. Issuers and stoppers were scattered among various commission houses. The last trade date assigned was Oct. 1.

 

Brazil's soy exports fell to 1.87 million metric tonnes in September from 2.35 million tonnes in August, the Foreign Trade Ministry said Wednesday. The soy trade brought in US$908 million to Brazil in September. Brazil also shipped 1.09 million tonnes of soymeal, up from 953,800 in August and broadly on a par with Sept., 2007. Soyoil exports rose to 200,000 tonnes in September from 162,600 tonnes in August.