October 2, 2007

  

Brazil 2007/08 soy crop early estimate at 63 million tonnes - Celeres

 

 

Brazil should harvest around 63 million tonnes of soy in the 2007-08 soy crop, according to local agribusiness consultancy, Celeres, on Monday (October 1).

 

However, Celeres estimated that yields could fall by 1.2 percent to around 2,801 kilograms per hectare compared to last week's estimate. Celeres cited "field observations" for the slight drop, and not weather specifically. Dry weather in Mato Grosso has caused some farmers to replant soy.

 

Brazil produced around 58 million tonnes of soy in the 2006/07 crop.

 

Area expansion is seen around 8.2 percent to 22.5 million hectares.

 

Total soy supply for 2007/08 is seen at 64.1 million tonnes, up 8 percent from the previous season. Soy crushers are expected to crush around 32 million tonnes of soy, judging by Celeres' estimate, compared to 30.5 million tonnes last year.

 

Soy exports are seen hitting around 26.7 million tonnes in 2007/08 compared to 25 million tonnes in 2006/07.

 

Local supply is currently seen hitting around 2.2 million tonnes by year's end. Brazil harvests say in March and starts planting in October. Celeres said volume is higher than expected, but still not enough to meet local demand. Demand side figures were not provided.

 

Brazil is the world's No. 2 soy producer behind the US.

 

The National Commodities Supply Corp, or Conab, will release its first 2007/08 soy planting intentions on Thursday, October 4.