India's soy output in 2010 is likely to rise 4.2% to 10.13 million tonnes as good rains are expected to increase the yield, the Soy Processors Association of India (SPAI) said Thursday (Sep 30).

 

The soy yield is likely to rise to 1,089kg/hectare in 2010 from 1,006kg/hectare last year, the trade body said. The country produced about 9.72 million tonnes of soy in 2009.

 

India's monsoon rains have been 2% above average so far this season, according to the state-run India Meteorological Department. The June-September monsoon season brings about 70% of India's annual rains and is crucial for summer-sown crops.

 

Soy output in Madhya Pradesh, the biggest producing state, is likely to rise 11% to 6.1 million tonnes due to a rise in area under cultivation and a higher yield.

 

Total area under soy in Madhya Pradesh is estimated to have risen to 5.5 million hectares in 2010 from 5.3 million hectares last year, the trade body said.

 

In Maharashtra, the second biggest producer, output is likely to fall to 2.8 million tonnes from about 3 million tonnes last year, it added.

 

Higher output estimates may increase the exports of soymeal and pressurise local prices, said Mehul Agrawal, analyst with Sharekhan Commodities.

 

Meanwhile, the country's soymeal exports had been falling over the past few months as local prices were higher than international rates. However, exports are improving as global prices have now risen sharper than local prices.

 

Total soymeal exports in the marketing year starting October 1 are likely to touch 4 million tonnes, Agrawal said.

 

India is estimated to export about 2.5 million tonnes of soymeal in 2009-10, according to industry officials.