October 1, 2010

 

International Grains Council cuts global grain production estimate

 

 

Global grain production in 2010/11 is forecast at 1,741 million tonnes, or four million tonnes below the previous month's projection, according to the International Grains Council.

 

This follows downward revisions, for corn in the US and wheat in the CIS region, more than offsetting improved prospects in Australia.

 

Significant reductions in wheat and barley output will outweigh another rise in corn, although prospects for the latter crop are downgraded slightly.

 

The difficult growing and harvesting conditions in parts of North America, Europe and the CIS have affected supplies of high-quality milling wheat and malting barley.

 

Grain consumption in 2010/11 is projected to increase by 0.6%, to 1,780 million tonnes, but this represents a marked slowing compared with previous years as the overall rate of expansion in industrial use, especially for ethanol in the US, is scaled back.

 

In the animal feed sector, corn use is expected to be boosted, while that of wheat will likely hold steady, but this will be more than offset by reductions in barley and other grains.

 

With global grains consumption expected to exceed output after three surplus years, global carryover stocks in 2010/11 are projected to fall by 39 million tonnes, to 353 million tonnes, mostly because of declines in the world's exporters, notably Russia and the US.

 

However, the total carryover will remain significantly above the lows seen earlier in the past decade.

 

Global trade in grains is expected to fall in 2010/11, mainly because of reduced wheat shipments. At 237 million tonnes, the total is five million tonnes above the August forecast, following upward revisions for the EU, Russia and sub-Saharan Africa.

 

Export forecasts for several countries, including Australia, Canada and the US, have been lifted, with total availabilities still seen as ample in a year which will see a huge shift in trade away from the drought-afflicted Black Sea region.

 

In all, wheat and coarse grains shipments from Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine will fall by 27 million tonnes compared with 2009/10, with around half of this shortfall likely to be sourced in the US.