October 1, 2009
USDA raises forecast for US wheat production on higher yields
The US Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for US wheat production this year based higher-than-expected yields, according to the annual Small Grains report released Wednesday (September 30).
US farmers are now predicted to produce a total of 2.22 billion bushels of wheat, about a 2 percent increase over the USDA's latest September forecast. On Sept. 11, the USDA predicted US wheat production to reach 2.184 billion bushels this year.
The new average yield forecast for all wheat in 2009 is 44.4 bushels per acre. That's up from the USDA's earlier September and August forecasts of 43.3 bushels/acre.
While the latest prediction shows a monthly increase, the new 2009 forecast still represents an 11 percent drop from the 2.5 billion bushels of wheat farmers produced last year.
The USDA said it raised its 2009 wheat production forecast because of "record" yields for spring wheat.
The new forecast for 2009 spring wheat, not including durum, is 587 million bushels and that's a 7 percent increase from the last forecast, the USDA said.
"The US yield [for other spring wheat] is a record-high 45 bushels per acre, 4.5 bushels higher than last year and 1.8 bushels higher than the previous record set in 2004," the USDA said in the Small Grains report. "Yields are above last year's levels in all states except Minnesota, South Dakota and Utah. North Dakota's yield of 45.5 bushels per acre is also a record-high, 3.5 bushels higher than the previous record set in 1992."
Durum wheat production is also seen stronger than just a month ago, the USDA said Wednesday. Farmers are now expected to produce 110 million bushels, a 12 percent increase from the latest 2009 forecast and 31 percent increase from last year.
The USDA forecast for winter wheat, though, was lowered. The new winter wheat production forecast is now 1.52 billion bushels, a 1 percent decrease from USDA's previous 2009 forecast and 18 percent lower than 2008 production.
"Adverse weather conditions in Oklahoma and Texas resulted in a decrease in harvest acres from last year," the USDA said. "Abandoned acres in Texas are the third highest on record."
