October 1, 2009
West Australia grain harvest forecast raised
A production forecast for winter grains in Western Australia state this crop year has been upgraded and the range narrowed to 11 million to 12.5 million tonnes, reflecting improved seasonal conditions, the operations manager at Cooperative Bulk Handling Ltd., Michael Musgrave, said Thursday.
The previous forecast range was 10 million-12 million tonnes, and CBH is now confident the bottom end of the new range can be achieved, he said.
"We still need finishing rains in central and southern areas of the wheat belt to deliver the higher end of the range, which is similar to last year," Musgrave told Dow Jones Newswires by telephone.
There is growing confidence that near-record production is likely in the northern Geraldton zone, he said.
Actual Western Australia production in the crop year ended March 31 was 12.3 million tonnes.
With wheat typically accounting for 70 percent of production of winter grains in Western Australia and with minimal domestic consumption, the new forecast range implies wheat output this crop year of between 7.7 million and 8.8 million tonnes compared with 8.9 million tonnes last crop year. An official forecast for wheat production in Australia this crop year of 22.7 million is based on Western Australia achieving output of 8.7 million tonnes.
Meanwhile, the president of the grains section of lobby Western Australian Farmers' Federation doubts that last year's production can be repeated this year.
Winter crops were "set up" well at the end of August and if there had been a cool, moist finish to the season "we certainly would have been on track to produce our second-largest crop ever, but I don't think that's now going to happen," Derek Clauson said by telephone late Wednesday (Sept 30).
The state's wheat belt is getting an "excellent finish" to the season in terms of low temperatures, and some areas have had good rain, Clauson said.
"There will be areas in W.A. that may well have their best crops ever, but there will be other areas that aren't going to produce to the expectations we had earlier on. In some areas of the state, September rainfall has been disappointing," he said.
