October 1, 2008

 

US corn and soy development still lag last year's level

The maturity and harvesting of the US corn crop remains well behind average, although the crop's good-to-excellent rating showed surprising improvement, the USDA said Monday (September 29, 2008) in its weekly crop progress report.

 

Soy development also continues to lag behind normal, the agency reported.

 

Meanwhile, winter wheat planting advanced, with the crop continuing its strong start, analysts said.

 

The report's impact on US grain and soy futures markets Tuesday will likely be limited, analysts said, as the trade focuses on worldwide financial turmoil.

 

The USDA will also release a report on quarterly grain stocks and wheat production, although that, too, will likely be lost in the shuffle, analysts said.

 

"Once again outside markets will dictate the direction for the upcoming week," said Terry Reilly, analyst for Citigroup.

 

Corn

 

The USDA said 52 percent of the US corn crop was mature, up from 33 percent last week but down from the average of 79 percent. In Iowa, the top corn-growing state, 45 percent of the crop was mature, up from 23 percent last week but down from the average of 85 percent.

 

In Illinois, 52 percent of the crop was mature, up from 31 percent last week but down from the average of 92 percent, according to the USDA. Indiana's crop was 57 percent mature, up from 40 percent last week but down from the average of 76 percent.

 

Although the slow pace of maturity has worried producers all season because it made the crop vulnerable to a first frost, there remains little threat of that in the long-range forecast. Analysts said the crop is almost in the clear, and a frost would most likely now just affect quality, rather than output.

 

The USDA said 61 percent of the total crop was in good-to-excellent condition, up from 59 percent last week. The good-to-excellent rating in Illinois increased to 71 percent, up from 66 percent last week. Iowa's good-to-excellent rating was 62 percent, up from 61 percent last week.

 

The US corn harvest continues to advance slowly. Illinois' crop was 4 percent harvested, well below the average of 32 percent, while Indiana's crop was 8 percent harvested, below the average of 16 percent. Iowa's crop was 2 percent harvested, down from the average of 9 percent.

 

Soy

 

The USDA said 68 percent of the US soy crop was dropping leaves, up from 44 percent last week but below the average of 81 percent. In Iowa, 70 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from 43 percent last week but down from the average of 90 percent.

 

In Illinois, 57 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, up from 24 percent last week but below the average of 84 percent, according to the USDA. Indiana had 80 percent of its crop dropping leaves, up from 60 percent last week and below the average of 82 percent.

 

The good-to-excellent rating for soy remained unchanged from last week at 57 percent, the USDA said. Analysts had expected the rating to remain steady.

 

In Illinois, 70 percent of the crop was rated good to excellent, up seven percentage points from last week.

 

Nine percent of the US crop was harvested, compared to 3 percent last week and the average of 21 percent.

 

Analysts said the weather continues to work in the crop's favor, and that in another week some states' crops would see only minor effects from a frost.