October 1, 2004

Romania 2004-05 Grain, Feed Crops Expected To Recover

A significant recovery from last year's drought-devastated crop is expected for grain and feed in Romania in MY2004/05, though current persistent dryness may jeopardize yield potential by harvest, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture.
 
Wheat and barley (including two-raw barley for malt) production for the marketing year 2004/05 are forecast at 4.9 million metric tons, and 1.1 MMT respectively, which would more than double production figures from last year's drought-devastated crop.
 
Cereal production in 2003/04 in Romania reached its lowest level in almost 40 years, as a result of both poor yields and shrinkage in the harvested area. Unfavorable weather conditions hit the southeast Balkan and Danube-basin region, and were particularly extreme in Romania reducing winter grain production to levels that turned the country into a net importer throughout the marketing year. Farmers had a very short planting window, due to a late summer harvest, heavy October rains and an unusually early winter. Temperatures reached historical lows in the winter-spring of 2003 that caused considerable winterkill and damaged the re-emerging plants. Low rainfall and extreme heat in spring and summer followed, that further contributed to low yields, the report said.
 
Strongly affected by these extreme weather conditions, local wheat was, however, able to meet local milling standards. The Romanian Ministry of Agriculture's official average yield estimate stood at 1.7 MT/HA on a total 1.4 million HA harvested, resulting in an output of 2.4 MMT. The highest yields and best quality were obtained in western Romania, with 2.5-3 MT/HA in Timis and Arad, while most counties in the Danube Plain and Moldova were devastated by drought. Winter barley had a similar pattern, with official estimates of 235,000 MT, derived from an average yield of about 2 MT/HA on 116,000 HA cropped, with large disparities ranging from 2.4-3 MT/HA in west (Timis, Arad), to 0. 2-0.5 MT/HA in south and east (Baragan Plain and Moldova). Also, a modest production of about 305,000 MT of malting two-raw barley was officially reported.
 
Livestock numbers continued to grow in CY2003. The sector relayed primarily on domestic corn production, since feed wheat and barley inventories were very scarce. A large portion (about 4 MMT) of last October's corn production was stored on-farm for household consumption, despite unusually high bids in the following months. Corn holders, expecting further price rise, sold only small lots. In spring, domestic prices have started to decline, as farmers began selling for financing the on-going planting campaign.
 
Production growth in the livestock sector surpassed growth in the crop sector and will continue to go up in the coming years, based on substantial subsidies from the Ministry of Agriculture. FAS Bucharest estimates that about 1.5 MMT of wheat, 380,000 MT of barley and about 6 MMT of corn will be used as feed during the MY 2004/05.