September 29, 2009

US producers slowly began harvesting corn and soy last week, with much of the crops still crawling toward maturity late in the season, the US Department of Agriculture said Monday (September 28).

 

The spring wheat harvest, meanwhile, neared completion in the northern Plains, as growers planted winter wheat in the central and southern Plains, the USDA said in its weekly crop progress report.

 

The US corn harvest was 6 percent complete as of Sunday, down from 8 percent last year and the average of 18 percent, according to the USDA. That was generally in line with expectations, as Citigroup had projected harvest at 7 percent complete.

 

Field work had just begun in key Midwestern states, with 2 percent harvested in Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, the USDA said. On average, harvest at this point would be 28 percent complete in Illinois, 15 percent complete in Indiana and 6 percent complete in Iowa.

 

"Nobody should be shocked by that," Dale Durchholz, analyst for AgriVisor, said about the slow start. "Everybody's been waiting for the time when we're going to see harvest really start to accelerate a little bit."

 

The late harvest follows the late development of the crop. Corn was 37 percent mature as of Sunday, compared to the average of 72 percent, and 90 percent dented, compared to the average of 97 percent, the USDA said.

 

In Iowa, 47 percent of corn was mature, compared to the average of 74 percent. In Illinois, 24 percent of the crop was mature, well below the average of 84 percent.

 

"Even in Nebraska, only 33 percent of the crop is totally mature, so you still have it at risk" to frost damage, Durchholz said. "You still have a lot more of the crop that's farther away from maturity in corn than you do in beans. Corn's the one that's really the most vulnerable."

 

The USDA kept its good-to-excellent rating for corn unchanged from last week at 68 percent. Traders had expected the rating to stay unchanged or slip slightly, but they said no one was paying much attention to it this late in the season.

 

The soy harvest was 5 percent complete as of Sunday, compared to 8 percent last year and the average of 18 percent, the USDA said. That was in line with traders' expectations.

 

In Iowa, 6 percent of the crop was harvested, compared to 7 percent last year and the average of 20 percent, the USDA said. Harvest was 3 percent complete in Indiana, compared to 13 percent last year and the average of 18 percent. Illinois was 1 percent finished with harvest, compared to 5 percent last year and the average of 21 percent.

 

The data should not be "a shock" as traders knew that the crop was behind normal in development, Durchholz said. Soy is "definitely closer to being frost-concern-free" than corn, he said.

 

The USDA said 63 percent of soy was dropping leaves, compared to 65 percent last year and the average of 77 percent. In Illinois, 41 percent of soy was dropping leaves, down from 52 percent last year and the average of 77 percent.

 

"You can nip a few bushels off of beans if [frost] would come far enough south," Durchholz said. "But it would probably have to get down into northern Illinois to say you're going to impact the total production this year."

 

In Iowa, 76 percent of the crop was dropping leaves, compared to the average of 84 percent. In Nebraska, 74 percent of the crop was dropping leaves compared to the average of 80 percent.

 

The USDA said 36 percent of winter wheat was planted as of Sunday, down from 37 percent last year and the average of 39 percent. The crop was 13 percent emerged, compared to 12 percent last year and the average of 14 percent.

 

In Kansas, 23 percent of planting was complete, compared to 33 percent last year and the average of 33 percent, the USDA said. The state's crop was 8 percent emerged, down from 10 percent last year and the average of 11 percent.

 

In Oklahoma, 33 percent of the crop was planted, compared to the average of 42 percent, and 10 percent had emerged, compared to the average of 15 percent, according to the USDA. In Texas, 40 percent was planted, compared to the average of 43 percent, and 13 percent had emerged, compared to the average of 15 percent.

 

The Plains have "reasonably good moisture," which is beneficial for the hard red winter wheat that is planted there, Durchholz said. Delays in seeding are not a worry yet.

 

"It is early," he said. "We're sitting here at the first of October. I'm really not that concerned about it today."

 

Farmers were wrapping up the spring wheat harvest, with 94 percent of the crop cut as of Sunday, according to the USDA. That compared to 99 percent at the same time last year and the average of 98 percent. Citigroup had predicted harvest would be 92 percent complete.

 

In North Dakota, the top US spring wheat state, harvest was 91 percent complete, down from the average of 97 percent. Late spring planting and cool summer weather are responsible for the late harvest.