September 28, 2009

US pork production for September is projected to be up from a year ago and result in back-to-back monthly records.

 

The US Department of Agriculture early Friday released its data for August monthly livestock slaughter and meat production. The report showed a new high for that month in pork output. Hog slaughter in August was down slightly at 99.4 percent of the record number set in 2007 but up about 1 percent from a year ago. Heavier hog weights, however, offset the slaughter shortfall from 2007 and pushed pork production to a new high for the month.

 

Hog slaughter rates have remained large overall but down slightly from 2008 levels in September, while hog weights continue to run well above a year ago. Combined, these supply-side factors have contributed to the pressure on hog and pork prices, which have averaged about 73 percent of a year ago for the month of September.

 

The number of weekdays and Saturdays in September this year is the same as a year ago, at 21 and four respectively. Having one less or more weekday in a month against the previous year can affect the comparisons by a few percentage points.

 

According to USDA data, weekly slaughters in September have averaged about 0.5% below a year ago.

 

Ron Plain, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, predicts commercial pork production for September will reach 1.986 billion pounds, which would be up about 0.5% from the record high of nearly 1.976 billion a year ago.

 

Average hog weights in Iowa/southern Minnesota for the first three weeks of September were up from the average for August but the spread, or difference, from a year ago has declined. That is because weights in August last year were down, due in large part to record high corn prices last summer and normally hot temperatures last July and August.

 

When temperatures turned cooler in late August and into September, hog weights began to rapidly climb. From early August to late September last year, the weekly average for barrows and gilts in Iowa/southern Minnesota climbed 7.2 pounds. This year, the net gain for the same period is projected to be less than one pound because the average was already high at the beginning of August. USDA data show a record 10.4 pound increase in the average for the week-ended Aug. 7 from the year-ago figure.

 

Last week's cattle slaughter was estimated at 649,000 head, compared with 648,000 a week ago and 660,000 a year ago. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down 4.8 percent from a year ago.

 

The week's hog slaughter estimate was 2.346 million head, compared with 2.310 million a week ago and 2.346 million a year ago. For the year, hog slaughter is off 3.2 percent.

 

The USDA estimated total beef, pork and lamb production for the week at 990.5 million pounds. Last week's output was 978.5 million pounds, and the year-ago figure was 995.7 million pounds. Year-to-date combined meat output is down 3.0 percent.

 

Broiler/fryer slaughter for the week was estimated at 161.351 million head, compared with 163.511 million a week ago and 164.981 million a year ago.