September 28, 2009

Argentina's wheat crop condition has improved significantly in recent weeks as spring rainfall coated much of the farm belt, the Agriculture Secretariat said in its weekly crop report Friday (September 25).

 

In the Pehuajo district of Buenos Aires province "the general state of the crop has improved notably...despite frost, there hasn't been any damage due to the excellent moisture levels," the secretariat said.

 

However, in the important wheat-growing district of Bahia Blanca, early drought has affected the crop and potential yields, the secretariat said.

 

Planted area is down sharply this season and output is expected to plunge. The Rosario Grain Exchange says that 2009-2010 wheat production is likely to total about 7.4 million tonnes.

 

That's down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2008-2009, and down sharply from the average of 14.76 million tonnes over the previous five years.

 

With domestic demand pegged at 6.5 million tonnes by the government, just 900,000 tonnes of wheat are likely to be left over for export from the 2009-2010 crop. The USDA is expecting Argentina to export 1.5 million tonnes of wheat and wheat flour from the 2009-10 crop.

  

Corn planting is moving forward, with farmers taking advantage of the moist conditions to put seed to soil, according to the Secretariat.

 

As of Wednesday, 14.5 percent of the forecast 1,875,000 hectares have been seeded with corn, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.

 

The Rosario Grain Exchange forecasts total corn planting of 2.3 million hectares, with 2009-10 production at about 16 million tonnes.

 

The government has pegged domestic consumption of corn from the 2009-2010 crop at 8 million tonnes, leaving an equal amount available for export, according to the Rosario exchange.

 

The US Department of Agriculture forecasts 7 million tonnes of exports from the 2009-10 corn crop.

 

Sunflower seed planting is progressing across much of the farm belt, but insufficient rainfall in the north is slowing planting, according to the Secretariat.

 

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange forecasts planted area of 2,050,000 hectares, down 4.4 percent on the year.

 

As of Wednesday, 9.3 percent of the forecast sunseed area had been planted, according to the Buenos Aires exchange.

 

The Rosario Grain exchange forecasts sunseed production of 3.4 million tonnes, up from about 3 million tonnes last season, when yields had suffered due to drought.

 

Soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season.

 

Planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during the 2009-10 season, according to private analysts. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.

 

The Rosario exchange forecasts 2009-10 soy planting of 18.5 million hectares, with production of 50 million tonnes.

 

In addition to weather factors, the fact that soy are the only major crop in which the government doesn't control exports is spurring farmers to plant more of the oilseed. Argentina limits the export of wheat and corn to ensure domestic supply and keep down local prices.