September 28, 2009

Australia's saleyard cattle prices are forecast to average lower in 2009-10, pressured by increased turnoff, continued sluggish export conditions and a stronger Australian dollar, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

Average cattle price is seen to decline 3.4 percent to 285¢/kg cwt in 2009-10. Cattle turnoff is expected to rise throughout the year, as seasonal conditions remain difficult, with adult cattle slaughter increasing 1.6 percent on-year to 8.84 million head. Lower average carcass weights will also restrict beef production to 2.16 million tonnes cwt.

The weak beef export conditions experienced throughout 2008-09 are expected to continue, restricting exports, said ABARE.

Australian beef exports in 2009-10 are forecast to decline three percent on-year to 940,000 tonnes swt, with lower export prices and the higher Australian dollar contributing to a eight-percent decline in export returns, to A$4.47 billion (US$3.8 billion).

With the rise in cattle slaughter and sustained live cattle exports in 2009-10, Australia's cattle herd is forecasted to decline 1.8 percent on-year to 26.8 million head.