September 27, 2012

 

World's 2012 grain production may reach 2.4 billion tonnes

 

 

Global grain production this year is anticipated to hit a record high of 2.4 billion tonnes, up 1% from 2011 levels.

 

This is according to new research conducted by the Worldwatch Institute's Nourishing the Planet for the Institute's Vital Signs Online service.

 

According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the production of grain for animal feed is growing the fastest - a 2.1% increase from 2011. Grain for direct human consumption grew 1.1% from 2011, reveal Danielle Nierenberg and Katie Spoden, the author of the report.

 

In 2011, the amount of grain used for food totalled 571 million tonnes. According to the International Grains Council, India consumed 89 million tonnes of grains, China 87 million tonnes, and the US 28 million tonnes.

 

The world relies heavily on wheat, corn, and rice for daily sustenance: of the 50,000 edible plants in the world, these three grains account for two-thirds of global food energy intake. Grains provide the majority of calories in diets worldwide, ranging from a 23% share in the US to 60% in Asia and 62% in North Africa.

 

Corn production in the US - the largest producer - was expected to reach a record 345 million tonnes in 2012; however, drought in the Great Plains has altered this estimate drastically. Corn yields for the 2012-13 growing season are now expected to decrease 13% from 2011 production, for a total production of 274.3 million tonnes.

 

The reliance on grain crops for food security is threatened by more-extreme climatic events, especially droughts and floods. According to the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction, the World Food Programme, and Oxfam International, some 375 million people will be affected by climate change-related disasters by 2015.

 

"The relationship between food security, grain production, and climate change is especially important in 2012," said Nierenberg, a Worldwatch senior researcher and Nourishing the Planet project director. "The recent drought affecting the US and the rest of the world show the need to reduce price volatility, move away from fossil fuel-based agriculture, and recognise the importance of women farmers to increase resilience to climate change."

 

The drought taking place in the Midwest and Great Plains of the US is considered the country's worst in 50 years, coming close to matching the late-1930s Dust Bowl. The drought is expected to cost many billions of dollars and could top the list as one of the most expensive weather-related disasters in US history.

 

The global market will be most affected by this drought, as so much of the developing world relies on US corn and soy production. Food prices have already begun to increase due to lower yields, and price fluctuations will inevitably affect food security around the globe.

 

The FAO expects global corn production to increase 4.1% from 2011, reaching an estimated 916 million tonnes in 2012. World wheat production is projected to drop to 675.1 million tonnes in 2012, down 3.6% from 2011, with the largest declines in feed and biofuel utilisation.

 

Since 1961, grain production has increased 269% and grain yield has increased 157%, while the grain harvest area has increased only 25%. This is due largely to the Green Revolution and the introduction of high-yielding grain varieties.