September 25, 2010

Russia suffers from 'acute' grain deficit

Russia faces an 'acute' grain shortage after the country's worst drought in at least 50 years and may import more than six million tonnes of cereals, Moscow-based research centre SovEcon said Thursday (Sep 23).

The country will have a grain surplus of four million tonnes at most when the next marketing year starts on July 1, 2011, after domestic usage of 77 million tonnes, the researcher said.

Russian grain supply in the current year will be between 77 million and 81 million tonnes, it said, calling the Agriculture Ministry's 90 million-tonne estimate "erroneous."

Inbound shipments of grain may exceed six million tonnes if the state delays sales from its 9.5 million-tonne inventory, the researcher said. The government has said it will start selling stockpiled grain in the first quarter and that cereal supply will suffice to meet domestic demand.

Grain supply includes stockpiles and imports as well as the national harvest. SovEcon forecasts a 59.5 million-tonne grain crop this year. The ministry estimates the harvest at between 60 million and 65 million tonnes, compared with 97.1 million tonnes last year.

Russia exported 3.3 million tonnes of wheat at the start of the marketing year between July 1 and August 15, when the ban on exports came into effect, with Egypt and Turkey purchasing almost two million tonnes of Russian wheat, it said.