September 23, 2005

USDA: China livestock and products annual report 2005
 

On July 11, 2005, USDA's Secretary Johanns and AQSIQ Minister Li initialed a bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) regarding food safety and animal and plant health cooperation. This agreement will also foster U.S.-China discussions on resolving meat trade issues.

Post forecasts China's beef production in 2006 at 7.6 million MT, a 6.4 percent increase from 2005. Strong demand and lagging production, combined with reduced imports due to BSE restrictions, will drive expansion of China's cattle and beef industry in 2006. 

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) will not significantly impact China's beef production due to the government's apparent efforts to stem any spread. Beef prices are forecast at high levels for the remainder of the year.

Post forecasts China's pork production during 2006 at 50.9 MMT, a 4-percent increase from 2005. Pork production will continue growing due to steady domestic consumption and export increases.

The pork and beef production increases have offset the slower pace of broiler meat production because of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in China. Pork prices are forecast from steady to weak due to lower feed grain prices.

Post forecasts China's beef imports will drop 40 percent to 6,000 MT in 2005, and during 2006 imports will remain flat because of continued BSE restrictions, domestic production increases, higher international prices and import policy changes. 

Australia and New Zealand have captured almost all China's cattle and beef import market. The pace of growth in China's beef exports is forecast smaller, at 20 percent, to 90,000 MT in 2006. The slightly appreciated RMB will make China's exports less competitive.

Post forecasts China's pork imports to decrease 28.5 percent to 50,000 MT also due to domestic production increase, higher international prices and import policy change.  China's pork exports in 2006 are forecast to increase 4.8 percent to 584,000 MT due to export market demand increase, especially Japan and Russia.

China is a net live swine exporter to Hong Kong and Macao accounting for 99 percent of its total exports.   

For the full USDA report, click here.