September 22, 2009
Australia winter crops face average rainfall in Q4
Winter crops including wheat in Australia face the likelihood of normal rainfall in the fourth quarter 2009, though there is a moderate shift in the odds to a drier period in the country's far southeast, the government's Bureau of Meteorology reported Tuesday.
As for maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over the fourth quarter, the national outlook shows moderate to strong shifts in the odds favoring higher-than-average temperatures across most of Australia, it reported in a monthly outlook statement.
The outlook suggests winter crops could be stressed by a lack of moisture as they mature in coming weeks when rainfall typically tapers off ahead of harvest mostly in November and December.
The bureau said the pattern of seasonal odds across Australia is a result of recent warm conditions in both the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
The Pacific's El Nino event dominates the outlook in eastern Australia, while the Indian Ocean has had a greater influence on the probabilities in Western Australia, it said.
An unusual El Nino event persists across the Pacific Basin, with most leading climate models forecasting the event to peak late in 2009.
El Ninos are usually but not always associated with below-normal rainfall in the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia.
The bureau's Southern Oscillation Index had a value of plus 3 for the 30 days ended September 19, rising from minus 5 in August.
